Why Arab states are ripe for revolution

The turmoil in Egypt has come sooner than many expected after the overthrow of President Ben Ali in Tunisia.

President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year military-backed dictatorship shares the same characteristics as other authoritarian regimes in the Arab world – lack of political, social, religious and economic freedoms; high levels of poverty, illiteracy and birthrate; and a failure to establish even the basics of democratic government.

Not the least of the reasons is the length these dictators have hung on to power; many of them, like Mubarak, have ruled for several decades in countries where up to a half of the population was born after 1990.

In a previous column, “Another one bites the dust,” I outlined the conditions that led in Tunisia to the first overthrow of an Arab dictatorship. All are being tested by sharp rises in commodity prices, lack of employment prospects for the educated middle class and declining opportunities to emigrate to Europe and the US, where hostility to Muslims makes them unwelcome.

Media reports have highlighted recent purchases of grain and other food items by authoritarian regimes to prevent the outbreak of riots. Examples are Algeria’s purchase of 800,000 tonnes of milling wheat and Saudi Arabia has said it will purchase enough wheat for a 12-month reserve.

Egypt, with a population of nearly 80 million, is the world’s largest importer of wheat. The Daily Telegraph reports “that resentment at food shortages and high prices, as well as repression and corruption, drove the popular uprising which swept away [Ben Ali’s] government.”

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that these purchases, and the bans on exports, are more likely to make matters worse.

Richard China, director of the FAO's policy and programme development support division, says, "The experience of the 2007-08 food crisis shows that in some cases, hastily taken decisions by governments to mitigate the impact of the crisis, have actually contributed to or exacerbated the crisis and aggravated its impact on food insecurity."

New Zealand is affected by the events in Egypt because of Fonterra’s large presence as a seller of milk powder, cheese and other dairy products to the region.

The NBR has previously reported:

The Middle Eastern market has been pegged to grow at around 8% per year, as wealth from oil and tourism has seen the beginnings of a westernisation of tastes. It is a high growth area for Fonterra, which saw its half-year revenues in the Asia Middle East Africa region grow from $420 million to $1.2 billion.

The recently established embassy in Cairo – opened primarily because of Fonterra – has been closed due to the unrest. Egypt is also a popular destination for Kiwi tourists and several hundred are there at the moment.

Ambassador Rene Wilson has urged New Zealanders to cancel travel to Egypt. New Zealand will also be affected by oil prices, which rose at the weekend as traders feared a closure of the Suez canal and other disruptions to supply if mass demonstrations spread to other Arab dictatorships.

Though Egypt has seen huge food riots break out on previous occasions, when the government has reimposed control, the latest mass demonstrations tap into many other grievances as well as inspiration from the collapse of communist regimes in eastern Europe.

As by far the most populous and influential Arab state – if lacking the economic clout of the oil-rich ones – what happens in Egypt will likely be an historic turning point in the Middle East.

Below is a brief profile of the Arab states (except Saudi Arabia) that are ripe for revolution, the longevity of their regimes, and their world rankings for human development (theUN's Human Development Index) and corruption (Transparency International).

EGYPT Pop 79m
Strongman: President Hosni Mubarak, 82, since Oct 1981
HDI – 101st
Corruption – 98th
Tourism is the biggest foreign exchange earner with 12.8m visitors annually

ALGERIA 34.9m
Strongman: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 73, since 1999
HDI – 84th
Corruption – 105th
World’s ninth largest oil producer

MOROCCO 33m
Monarchy: King Mohammed VI, 47, since 1999 (son of Hassan II 1961-99)
HDI -114th
Corruption 85th
World’s largest exporter of phosphates

YEMEN 23.5m
Strongman: President Ali Abdullah Saleh, 64, since 1979
HDI – 133rd
Corruption – 146th

SYRIA 22.5m
Strongman: Bashar al-Assad, 45, since 2000; son of Harfez al-Assad 1970-2000
HDI – 111th
Corruption – 127th

TUNISIA 10.4m
Strongman: President Ben Ali, 74, ruled 1987-2011
HDI – 81st
Corruption 59th

LIBYA 6.4m
Strongman: Muammar al-Gaddafi, 68, since 1969
HDI – 53rd
Corruption – 146th
Oil reserves are largest in Africa and produces 95% of foreign exchange

MAURITANIA 3.3m
Strongman: Mohammed Ould Abdel al-Aziz, 54, since 2008 (after series of military coups that followed overthrow of President Taya, 1984-2005)
HDI – 136th
Corruption – 143rd

JORDAN 6.4m
Monarchy: King Abdullah II, 49, since 1999 (son of King Hussein (1952-99)
HDI – 82nd
Corruption - 50th