What's behind National's surge, and the Green's record low

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll (on Curiablog) shows a large change since their last poll in October.

National is up 6% to 51% and the Greens have dropped 5% to 8%. This is the (equal) highest National has polled since the election and the lowest the Greens have polled.

Labour have stayed constant at 34%. Now voters do not tend to defect from the Greens to National. Almost certainly what has happened is National has picked up 5% to 6% off Labour, while Labour has picked up 5% from the Greens. This makes sense, as their giving welfare to families earning up to $150,000 will appeal to hard left voters, but be a total turn off for centrist voters.

Cunliffe has also dropped to 10% in the Preferred PM stakes, and I think is lower than Shearer ever was.

One should never jump to a conclusion off one poll. However the four polls done in February average out at 49% for National, 32% Labour and 10% Greens. That is a 7% lead for National, which is a huge contrast to January when National was 2% behind Labour and Greens combined.

It’s the talk of Wellington how despondent some Labour MPs are. They announced a massive $500 million a year baby bonus policy, and the result was National goes up 6%. The challenge for them is to find a circuit breaker to change the narrative from unlikely to win and not ready for Government.

The challenge for National is to resist arrogance or complacency. A 7% lead can disappear, and under MMP no election is safe.

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000 respondents

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: 

Party Support

• National 51.0% (+6.0%)
• Labour 34.0% (nc)
• Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
• Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
• Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 44
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• Centre Right" – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
• Centre Left – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
• Centre – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
• Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

• 43% say he should be a Minister
• 43% say he should not