Westpac forecasts pick up in June GDP growth to 0.7%
Three temporary factors pushed growth down to just 0.2% in the March quarter.
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Hawke’s Bay
Westpac is picking GDP growth bounced back in the June quarter to 0.7%.
The official figure is due out next Thursday. Westpac’s Michael Gordon says three temporary factors from March’s weak 0.2% rise will be reversed.
These are milk production, which fell 3.6% in the first quarter as drought gripped much of the South Island; a partial shutdown at the Tui oil field; and low lake levels that shifted electricity generation away from hydro.
“A strong end to the dairying season in the North Island meant milk production rose by an estimated 8% in seasonally adjusted terms,” he says.
“The Tui oil field has returned to full operation, and in fact recorded its highest quarterly output in four years. And hydro’s share of electricity generation has risen sharply.”
Nevertheless, Mr Gordon says the pace of growth has clearly slowed since last year, reflecting the dairy downturn and the peak in the Canterbury earthquake rebuild.
“The sharp fall in business investment that we saw in the March quarter doesn’t appear to have been reversed, and wholesale trade and manufacturing (aside from dairy) have declined for two straight quarters.”
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Nevil Gibson
Thu, 10 Sep 2015
Thu, 10 Sep 2015
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Westpac forecasts pick up in June GDP growth to 0.7%
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