US presidential race: Cruz becomes clear No 2, closes gap on Trump

Source: NYT. Click to zoom. * Clinton leads Sanders 663 to 459 in pledged state delegates, and 458 to 22 in superdelegates (party leaders who can vote for any candidate)

There were signs over the weekend that a crude debate performance, and new attack ads from rivals, were starting to take their toll on Republican front-runner Donald Trump.

As four states voted in "Super Saturday," Texas senator Ted Cruz won two states, Kansas and Maine and ran Mr Trump a surprisingly close second in a third, Louisiana. The Kentucky race was also surprisingly close.

The March 4 Republican candidates' debate degenerated into a schoolboy slanging match, with Mr Trump guilty of name-calling ("Little Marco," "Lying Ted") and at one point defending the size of his penis. One observer said while the candidates were not actively trading punches, "we're on the last rung of the ladder."  On Twitter, Jamie Johnson, an advisor to former Texas governor and 2016 presidential candidate Rick Perry offered, “My party is committing suicide on national television.”

While the brawl flattered no one, Mr Trump arguably came off the worst as Senators Cruz and Rubio, and the Fox News moderators, hammered the insurgent with questions about Trump University, where around 5000 or a third of students are now suing, alleging the coursework was not worth fees of up to $US35,000. Questions were also raised around Mr Trump's large inheritance from his property magnate father, and failed business ventures such as a condo development in Mexico (where Mr Trump settled legal action), Trump Steaks, Trump Vodka and the airline Trump Shuttle. Aggressive new attack ads from rivals, and their proxies, are hammering various Trump business failures and inconsistencies in policy.

The buildup to "Super Saturday" also saw former Republican nominee Mitt Romney attack Mr Trump as a con artist, but Mr Trump embraced the attack. Having his outsider candidacy questioned by an establishment politician was more familiar ground. He swatted it away calling Mr Romney a "stiff" and a "failed candidate". 

With Senator Rubio finishing a poor third in every state contested Saturday, and Ohio governor John Kasich a poor third, the evangelical Senator Cruz can now claim to be the clear No 2. Despite being only slightly more popular with the party's establishment than Mr Trump, the Texan senator can now legitimately claim to be the only candidate with a realistic shot of defeating the brash New Yorker.

Enthusiasm for Mr Cruz' wins over the weekend must be tempered, however. Although polls showed Mr Trump with handy leads in Kansas and Maine, they are states that hold caucuses – time-intensive debate-then-vote events open only to party members. The process seems to skew toward more orthodox candidates; Mr Trump has lost five of six states that have held caucuses rather than more casual primaries.  

The Louisiana result (Trump 41%, Cruz 38%) was more encouraging to the senator but was still close-but-no-cigar as he narrowly failed to close Mr Trump's big lead in polls before the primary.

There is another round of primaries March 8, including Michigan and Mississippi on the Republican side. The former is regarded as a test of the "rust belt" appeal of Mr Trump's appeal to disaffected white working class voters. But the most attention is on March 15, when two large winner-takes-all states are up for grabs: senator Rubio's home state of Florida (where polls show Mr Trump comfortably leading) and governor Kasich's home state of Ohio (where the latest survey shows Mr Trump narrowly ahead). Losses would almost certainly see senator Rubio and governor Kasich drop out, leaving Mr Cruz as the standard-bearer for the anyone-but-Trump camp.

The problem for the Republican Party establishment is that Senator Cruz is unpopular with this senate colleagues, and viewed by many strategists as too extreme a social conservative to win a general election. Some in the party are also confounded by the Texan's hostility to trade deals, including the TPP – a stance he shares with Mr Trump and Democrat candidates Hillary Clinton and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders.

On the Democrat side, Vermont senator Sanders won Nebraska and Kansas, while Ms Clinton carried the more delegate-rich Louisiana to maintain her large lead in delegates overall.

At this point, the best hope for conservatives is that Senator Sanders somehow wins the Democrat nomination — a scenario that would trigger Michael Bloomberg's pledge to run as an independent candidate for president in the event of a Trump vs Sanders race.

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