UN report questions ETS savings on coal-fired power

A United Nations review team which says New Zealand's response to climate change is inadequate has pointed to weaknesses in the Government's estimates for emissions savings.

The review, published by the UN, said the officials could not find a plan for two thirds or more of what is required to meet the nation's emissions reduction target for 2020, and expressed "great concern" about whether New Zealand will put adequate measures in place in time.

Of the 12 megatonnes of emissions savings New Zealand claimed would result from government policy measures in 2020, 10 megatonnes was attributed to the emissions trading scheme, without detail of how this was calculated.

But Sustainability Council executive director Simon Terry said today that though 7.2 megatonnes of the claimed savings arose from abandoning unspecified coal-fired generation, most of the estimated emission savings "are not credible or are uncertain".

"Half the amount expected to be saved is based on the ETS stopping hypothetical coal-fired power stations that no one has actually proposed to build," he said.

The owner of the nation's only coal-fired station, Huntly, had said that its output was being reduced in the face of competition from newly-constructed stations, but it appeared that in the government's calculations the ETS was credited with the emissions savings.

Though most of the claimed savings were from supposedly avoiding the construction of new coal-fired stations, "there have been no serious proposals for such plant in recent times", Mr Terry said.

Another sizable saving projected by New Zealand for 2020 was a reduction in deforestation of 3.4 megatonnes, but this was just a deferral of plans to harvest production forest, with the sustainable level of savings "quite uncertain", he said.

The savings that were left -- 1.4 megatonnes -- were just 12 percent of the total that the Government said would be saved by 2020 by government policies, Mr Terry said.

"Overall, New Zealand presents claims of savings that mostly lack credibility or are uncertain," he said.

But it could achieve the middle of its 2020 target range of emissions 10 percent to 20 percent below 1990 levels at no economic cost at an effective carbon price of $30 a tonne, if pastoral farmers were required to pay the costs of their livestock emissions, Mr Terry said.

Emissions accountability for agriculture has been deferred to 2015, but the Government has promised to review the scheme this year and in 2014, and not include it if other trading partners have made no progress.

Agriculture Minister David Carter has said that farmers should still plan coming into the emissions trading scheme in 2015.

"It is legislated for 2015. We're doing a review now to see whether that is the appropriate date, or if it should be delayed."