Turnbull wins election ploy but is behind in the polls

See also: Turnbull confirms July 2 is probable election date

Federal opposition senators have risen to the bait and have given Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull what he wanted – an excuse to trigger an election and a full election for both houses of Parliament.

Known as a “double dissolution,” it means all senators and MPs will face an election on July 2.

The trigger was that a majority senators – 36 to 34 – refused to pass Coalition government legislation that would curb union power in the construction industry and reinstate the Building and Construction Commission.

Mr Turnbull will move today to confirm the election, which will be fought over issues such as tax cuts, budget repair, and the nation’s economic direction.

Labor and independent senators hold a majority and have resisted the government bill to restore employer demands for greater protections on building sites.

The government did score a victory in the Senate with another piece of legislation to abolish the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal.

However, restoration of the building commission law was a bridge too far for the senate majority.

Close race expected
Mr Turnbull’s intention to call a double dissolution – first announced last month – is a big gamble as the government has lost some ground in public opinion polls.

Labor, led by Bill Shorten, holds a narrow lead in the latest Newspoll. Labor’s election platform is to oppose government spending cuts to education and health.

Mr Turnbull will use his May 3 budget to set out the government’s programme, which will emphasise economic growth and spending on defence projects.

Mr Turnbull and Defence Minister Marise Payne yesterday announced local construction of a new fleet of naval patrol boats that will “directly secure” more than 2500 jobs for decades in South Australia and Western Australia. This will be followed by a $A50 billion commitment to a new submarine fleet. 

Avoiding caretaker mode
The immediate future is that Mr Turnbull will respond to the Senate outcome today by confirming his intention to seek a double dissolution but he will stop short of calling the election.

This will avoid claims that the government has already entered caretaker mode.

He is not expected to visit Governor-General Peter Cosgrove to request the double dissolution until after the budget.

Holding a double dissolution poll before June 30 would see the incoming senators have their terms backdated to July last year, forcing another half-Senate election before the middle of 2018 and putting the upper house out of sync with the lower house.

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