Turnbull confirms July 2 is probable election date

Australia is probably going to the polls on July 2, a move first signalled a month ago by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

He confirmed today the Senate’s rejection of a bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission will be “a trigger for a double dissolution election.”

The bill is opposed by Labor, Green and four independent senators – who have a majority – because it is anti-union.

"My intention is after the budget  [on May 3], an appropriate time after the budget has been delivered, I will be asking the Governor-General to dissolve both houses of the parliament for an election which I expect to be held on July 2," Mr Turnbull said.

He told reporters in Canberra it would be a "very good assumption" to expect a vote on July 2 but stopped short of calling an election and confirming the date.

He said the double dissolution, which puts all MPs and senators up for election, will enable the Australian people to “decide whether there should be an Australian Building and Construction Commission."

In a normal election, the lower house and just half the senate are chosen. The last such election – also aimed at resolving legislative deadlocks – was in 1987.

Restoring the commission to prevent union control of the construction industry has been a key policy plank for the Liberal-National coalition under Mr Turnbull and his predecessor, Tony Abbott  

High-risk strategy
Mr Turnbull’s actions are not without risk to him and the government. Two polls this week put Labor close to or ahead of the government.

Support for his leadership has also dropped in recent opinion surveys, though he personally remains still well ahead of Labor leader Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister.

Although Mr Turnbull has been the prime minister for only seven months, the government was due to call an election before next January.

Australia has undergone five leadership changes in as many years and this political instability has unnerved some of Australia’s biggest companies.

Qantas Airways has said it is scaling back expansion plans, partly because political uncertainty had put passengers off travel.

Real estate broker McGrath also blames the political climate for cooling demand for residential housing in Sydney.

Moody’s Investors Service this month warned that the country's AAA rating could be at risk because of continued spending and rising debt.

Combined state and federal government debt has tripled in a decade to equal 36.6% of gross domestic product. Treasurer Scott Morrison has promised the government won’t raise taxes to counteract shrinking revenue.

Still, the economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 3% in 2015, outpacing many of its developed-world peers.

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