Trump's Twitter attacks on conservative Republicans: so far, they're backfiring

It's no surprise that Donald Trump has ignored advice to dial-it down on Twitter.

Instead, the President has doubled down, using the social network to personally target three members of The Freedom Caucus, the conservative Republican faction he blames for the failure of his bid to repeal Obamacare.

In another tweet, he gave the group a generic bash:

The Freedom Caucus will hurt the entire Republican agenda if they don't get on the team, & fast. We must fight them, & Dems, in 2018!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 30, 2017

So there seems little prospect Donald will change his online ways, and the real question becomes: is his cyber-bullying gambit working?

So far, no.

Freedom Caucus member Justin Amash cheerfully returned fire.

It didn't take long for the swamp to drain @realDonaldTrump. No shame, Mr. President. Almost everyone succumbs to the D.C. Establishment. https://t.co/9bDo8yzH7I

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) March 30, 2017

Mr Amash later told media "Most people don't take too well to being bullied," and compared the president to a fifth-grader.

And the NYT notes, "Representative Tom Garrett of Virginia, another Freedom Caucus member, was even more blunt. “Stockholm Syndrome?” he asked on Twitter above a copy of Mr Trump’s taunting post, suggesting the president had become captive to the Republican establishment he gleefully flayed during the campaign."

Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows was more diplomatic, but made the same point.

This slanging match matters because the President can only afford 21 Republican defections in the House if for legislation supporting his agenda to be passed. In the Senate, Republicans have a majority of just two.

Trump has indicated he's keen to move onto tax reform as an easier win after the healthcare tussle.

It won't be.

All Republicans like tax cuts, but there are two major complications.

One is disagreement over a proposed 20% border tax, which forms part of the overall tax overhaul. Some see several negatives to this proposal, from pushing up costs for American consumers to provoking trade wars to protecting flabby US industry rather than encouraging it to innovate or become more competitive. Economic nationalists and fiscal conservatives are far apart. It will take skill and diplomacy, not schoolboy tweets, to bring them together.

Then there's the debt issue. The Congressional Budget Office said the repeal of Obamacare would have saved $US337 billion as 24 million people were moved out of coverage by 2026 and Medicaid cut back. But with those savings off the table, Congress would have to vote to lift the debt ceiling given it's unlikely the Trump administration could push through cuts in spending to match the cut in government income — and that the hoped-for economic growth benefits would not immediately kick in. The deficit hawks are wary.

Get off Twitter and do your homework
And there's the factor that the US tax code is a hugely complex beast that hasn't been substantially updated since 1986. It needs a clever strategist with a keen grasp of detail to push through change.

So far, Trump looks like neither.

His bid to repeal Obamacare failed in large part simply because he had no coherent plan to reconcile the competing demands of the three main Republican factions in Congress (the 30 members of the hard right Freedom Caucus, who thought it essentially perpetuated Obamacare, the 50 or so in the Tuesday Group group who feared it went too far and moderates in the Republican Study Group). 

But there was also the factor that all three factions were uncomfortable with the president's desire to change the law in a headlong rush. 

And by insider accounts, all three found it difficult to negotiate with the president in this pressure cooker, tight deadline environment when he simply did not have a good grasp of policy detail.

With tax reform, the inter-party debate seems to have devolved still further as Trump screams at Freedom Caucus members in ALL CAPS on Twitter.

We'll have to see whether The Closer's chaotic, scrapping-in-public style ultimately works any better with tax and his budget than it did with healthcare.

But from the reactions of conservative Republicans so far, it's looking like another big mess.