Trump's campaign finally going off the rails?
A week of five blunders capped by shock poll.
Is Donald Trump's campaign finally going across the rails?
One poll shows the brash New Yorker suddenly 10 points behind Senator Ted Cruz in Wisconsin, scene of the next primary (on Wednesday NZT) and a key battleground in the fight to stop Trump winning a majority of delegates nationwide.
An earlier poll showed Trump with a slim lead.
In between, the Republican frontrunner badly bungled a question on abortion during a townhall-style meeting hosted by MSNBC — or at least he appeared to agree when moderator Chris Matthews asked him if women should be punished for having an abortion (it was actually a very tangled exchange; see transcript below).
Trump tied himself up in knots on the issue, and seemed ignorant of US law on abortion today. He later clarified he did not think a woman should be punished for having an abortion, but that those who administered it should be.
Both his original comment and his retraction drew fire from Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton, among others, putting Trump in the rare position of being savaged by both pro-life and pro-choice factions -- and you don't want to wrong-foot it on this most volatile of issues in US politics
Despite the high profile of social conservatives in the US, it's quite possible for a pro-choice politician to gain national office — recent examples being Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
But you have to choose sides. Trump has raised suspicion from both from his confused MSNBC performance.
US media were quick to bring up Trump's 1999 statement that he was "very pro-choice" (and incidentally, pro-gays in the military and pro-gay marriage). This was from Trump's friends-with-the-Clinton's era. Trump has said he was friends with the Clintons because it was good for his property business; an argument his backers seemed to buy. But his shifting position on abortion could unnerve his more socially conservative supporters.
Certainly, the Cruz camp was quick to pounce. Rapid-response director Brian Phillips tweeted, “Don’t overthink it: Trump doesn’t understand the pro-life position because he’s not pro-life.”
And four more bits of trouble for Trump this week
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There was more trouble for Trump earlier this week when one of his former political advisors, Sam Nunberg, endorsed Ted Cruz, saying that his ex-boss lacked the policy substance and intellectual coherence to be president.
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On Wednesday, police arrested Trump's campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and charged him with battery over an incident where security footage appears to show him roughly grabbing a female reporter. It's all red meat to Trump's core supporters, but they only account for about 1 in 3 Republicans in many key states.
- Fortune, the Wall Street Journal and CBS MarketWatch have all run features on Trump's patchy record in business. While we've seen failed side-ventures like Trump Shuttle, Trump Vodka and Trump Steaks mocked in the past, Fortune zeroes in on one of his core operations, Trump Hotels & Resorts, which went twice bankrupt and lost $US1.7 billion. For someone who inherited half a billion from their property developer father, Donald Trump seems something less than a financial genius. Many Trump supporters don't read the financial press, and are only energised by media attacks.
- A meeting with the Republican Party chairman and others in the Republican hierarchy to "clear the air" seemed to have the exact opposite effect as Trump recanted his written pledge to be loyal to an alternative candidate. Should Trump ultimately win the candidacy, Cruz and others now have licence to snipe from the sidelines.
The "Never Trump" movement's hope is that Cruz can do well enough in Wisconsin, and other states to come, to prevent the insurgent reaching the magic 1237 delegate mark (an outright majority would hand him the Republican presidential primary. If no candidate makes 1237, a brokered convention would see many delegates free to vote for any candidate after the first round).
Many stop-Trump conservatives don't have a lot of time for Cruz either. He's often seen as even less electable given his extreme social conservatism, and undesirable with his anti-trade policies.
Wisconsin could give the stop-Trump forces hope. But Trump has been written off before. And even in Wisconsin, a second poll shows him just one point behind Cruz. In New York and other states to come, he maintains a big lead.
The main takeaway from this week is that Trump's genius for bumper-sticker slogans and put-downs that stick served him well during the multi-candidate debates.
But in the more focused events now, he's becoming a bit unglued. The more he's quizzed by an opponent in a one-on-one, the worse he tends to do.
It doesn't bode well for his chances in November, should he become the Republican candidate.
RAW DATA: Partial transcript from MSNBC town hall meeting, moderated by Chris Matthews
QUESTION: Hello. I am (inaudible) and have a question on, what is your stance on women’s rights and their right to choose in their own reproductive health?
TRUMP: OK, well look, I mean, as you know, I’m pro-life. Right, I think you know that, and I -- with exceptions, with the three exceptions. But pretty much, that’s my stance. Is that OK? You understand?
MATTHEWS: What should the law be on abortion?
TRUMP: Well, I have been pro-life.
MATTHEWS: I know, what should the law -- I know your principle, that’s a good value. But what should be the law?
TRUMP: Well, you know, they’ve set the law and frankly the judges -- I mean, you’re going to have a very big election coming up for that reason, because you have judges where it’s a real tipping point.
MATTHEWS: I know.
TRUMP: And with the loss of (Supreme Court Justice Antonin) Scalia, who was a very strong conservative...
MATTHEWS: I understand.
TRUMP: ... this presidential election is going to be very important, because when you say, "what’s the law, nobody knows what the law’s going to be. It depends on who gets elected, because somebody is going to appoint conservative judges and somebody is going to appoint liberal judges, depending on who wins.
MATTHEWS: I know. I never understood the pro-life position.
TRUMP: Well, a lot of people do understand.
MATTHEWS: I never understood it. Because I understand the principle, it’s human life as people see it.
TRUMP: Which it is.
MATTHEWS: But what crime is it?
TRUMP: Well, it’s human life.
MATTHEWS: No, should the woman be punished for having an abortion?
TRUMP: Look...
MATTHEWS: This is not something you can dodge.
TRUMP: It’s a -- no, no...
MATTHEWS: If you say abortion is a crime or abortion is murder, you have to deal with it under law. Should abortion be punished?
TRUMP: Well, people in certain parts of the Republican Party and conservative Republicans would say, "yes, they should be punished."
MATTHEWS: How about you?
TRUMP: I would say that it’s a very serious problem. And it’s a problem that we have to decide on. It’s very hard.
MATTHEWS: But you’re for banning it?
TRUMP: I’m going to say -- well, wait. Are you going to say, put them in jail? Are you -- is that the (inaudible) you’re talking about?
MATTHEWS: Well, no, I’m asking you because you say you want to ban it. What’s that mean?
TRUMP: I would -- I am against -- I am pro-life, yes.
MATTHEWS: What is ban -- how do you ban abortion? How do you actually do it?
TRUMP: Well, you know, you go back to a position like they had where people will perhaps go to illegal places --
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
TRUMP: But you have to ban it.
MATTHEWS: You banning, they go to somebody who flunked out of medical school.
TRUMP: Are you Catholic?
MATTHEWS: Yes. I think...
TRUMP: And how do you feel about the Catholic Church’s position?
MATTHEWS: Well, I accept the teaching authority of my church on moral issues.
TRUMP: I know, but do you know their position on abortion?
MATTHEWS: Yes, I do.
TRUMP: And do you concur with that position?
MATTHEWS: I concur with their moral position but legally, I get to the question -- here’s my problem with it...
(Laughter in the audience.)
TRUMP: No, no, but let me ask you, but what do you say about your Church?
MATTHEWS: It’s not funny.
TRUMP: Yes, it’s really not funny. What do you say about your church? They’re very, very strong.
MATTHEWS: They’re allowed to -- but the churches make their moral judgments. But you running for president of the United States will be chief executive of the United States. Do you believe...
TRUMP: No, but...
MATTHEWS: Do you believe in punishment for abortion, yes or no as a principle?
TRUMP: The answer is that there has to be some form of punishment.
MATTHEWS: For the woman.
TRUMP: Yeah, there has to be some form.
MATTHEWS: Ten cents? Ten years? What?
TRUMP: I don’t know. That I don’t know. That I don’t know.
MATTHEWS: Why not?
TRUMP: I don’t know.
MATTHEWS: You take positions on everything else.
TRUMP: Because I don’t want to -- I frankly, I do take positions on everything else. It’s a very complicated position.
MATTHEWS: But you say, one, that you’re pro-life, meaning you want to ban it.
TRUMP: But wait a minute, wait a minute. But the Catholic Church is pro-life.
MATTHEWS: No, let’s not talk about my religion.
TRUMP: No, no, I am talking about your religion. Your religion -- I mean, you say you’re a very good Catholic. Your religion is your life. Let me ask you this.
MATTHEWS: I didn’t say very good. I said I’m Catholic. And secondly, I’m asking -- you’re running for president.
TRUMP: No, no...
MATTHEWS: I’m not.
TRUMP: Chris -- Chris.
MATTHEWS: I’m asking you, what should a woman face if she chooses to have an abortion?
TRUMP: I’m not going to do that.
MATTHEWS: Why not?
TRUMP: I’m not going to play that game.
MATTHEWS: Game?
TRUMP: You have...
MATTHEWS: You said you’re pro-life.
TRUMP: I am pro-life.
MATTHEWS: That means banning abortion.
TRUMP: And so is the Catholic Church pro-life.
MATTHEWS: But they don’t control the -- this isn’t Spain, the church doesn’t control the government.
TRUMP: What is the punishment under the Catholic Church? What is the...
MATTHEWS: Let me give something from the New Testament, "Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and to God the things that are God’s." Don’t ask me about my religion.
TRUMP: No, no...
MATTHEWS: I’m asking you. You want to be president of the United States.
TRUMP: You told me that...
MATTHEWS: You tell me what the law should be.
TRUMP: I have -- I have not determined...
MATTHEWS: Just tell me what the law should be. You say you’re pro-life.
TRUMP: I am pro-life.
MATTHEWS: What’s that mean?
TRUMP: With exceptions. I am pro-life. I have not determined what the punishment would be.
MATTHEWS: Why not?
TRUMP: Because I haven’t determined it.
MATTHEWS: When you decide to be pro-life, you should have thought of it. Because...
TRUMP: No, you could ask anybody who is pro-life...
MATTHEWS: OK, here’s the problem -- here’s my problem with this. If you don’t have a punishment for abortion -- I don’t believe in it, of course -- people are going to find a way to have an abortion.
TRUMP: You don’t believe in what?
MATTHEWS: I don’t believe in punishing anybody for having an abortion.
TRUMP: OK, fine. OK.
MATTHEWS: Of course not. I think it’s a woman’s choice.
TRUMP: So you’re against the teachings of your church?
MATTHEWS: I have a view -- and a moral view. But I believe we live in a free country, and I don’t want to live in a country so fascistic that it could stop a person from making that decision.
TRUMP: But then you are...
MATTHEWS: That would be so invasive...
TRUMP: I know, but I’ve heard you speaking...
MATTHEWS: So determined of a society that I wouldn’t be able -- one we are familiar with. And Donald Trump, you wouldn’t be familiar with.
TRUMP: But I’ve heard you speaking so highly about your religion and your church.
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
TRUMP: Your church is very, very strongly, as you know, pro-life.
MATTHEWS: I know.
TRUMP: What do you say to your church?
MATTHEWS: I say, I accept your moral authority. In the United States, the people make the decision, the courts rule on what’s in the Constitution, and we live by that. That’s why I say.
TRUMP: Yes, but you don’t live by it because you don’t accept it. You can’t accept it. You can’t accept it. You can’t accept it.
MATTHEWS: Can we go back to matters of the law and running for president because matters of the law, what I’m talking about, and this is the difficult situation you’ve placed yourself in.
By saying you’re pro-life, you mean you want to ban abortion. How do you ban abortion without some kind of sanction? Then you get in that very tricky question of a sanction, a fine on human life, which you call murder?
TRUMP: It will have to be determined.
MATTHEWS: A fine, imprisonment for a young woman who finds herself pregnant?
TRUMP: It will have to be determined.
MATTHEWS: What about the guy that gets her pregnant? Is he responsible under the law for these abortions? Or is he not responsible for an abortion?
TRUMP: Well, it hasn’t -- it hasn’t -- different feelings, different people. I would say no.
MATTHEWS: Well, they’re usually involved.
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Trump's campaign finally going off the rails?
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