Trump warns of ‘riots’ if a brokered convention denies him candidacy

Republican front-runner Donald Trump has warned of “riots” if his candidacy is blocked at a brokered convention and his supporters being what they are, nobody can rule out an actual riot at the convention (set for July 18 – 21 in Cleveland after the primary races wrap up).

But of more worry to party elders is the political riot that would ensue if a brokered convention pushes Mr Trump aside, and La Donald rips up his loyalty pledge and decides to run as a vote-splitting independent candidate – all but ensuring Hillary Clinton’s election as president.

Recall that in 1992, the Trump-like Ross Perot got a healthy 18.9% of the vote for president running as an independent, fatally wounding George HW Bush (37.4%) and allowing Bill Clinton to win despite his low vote (43.0%).

Two developments yesterday made a brokered convention more likely.

One, Governor John Kasich won his home state, the delegate-rich Ohio, making it trickier for Mr Trump to reach the 1237 pledged delegates needed for an outright majority and automatic candidacy.

Two, Senator Marco Rubio — poster boy for the far-right Tea Party faction, so influential pre-Trump — lost his home state of Florida, meaning the anti-Trump vote will now be split two-ways rather than three.

So what is a brokered convention? Each time a Republican (or Democrat) wins a state, they get awarded delegates, based on the state’s population. Sometimes it’s proportional, sometimes it’s winner-takes-all (as in Ohio).

In the case of the Democrats, there are also 493 “super delegates” or party grandees who can vote how they like; at the moment they’re lined up 463 to 27 in favour of Mrs Clinton over Bernie Sanders; embers of the Republican establishment can only look on jealously at this circuit-breaker against outlier nominations.

Right now, a touch over the half-way mark, there are 899 delegates still up for grabs (including two big winner-takes-all states, New York with 95 delegates and California with 175).

Mr Trump is currently on 661 delegates, Mr Cruz on 405 and Mr Kasich on 142 (and the now-departed Mr Rubio 169).

That means Mr Trump has to win 64% of remaining delegates to get to the 1237 threshold. That could come down to 59% once results from yesterday’s primaries and delegate allocation are finalised.

That’s going to be tough, in overall terms and especially if votes in New York – which has traditionally favoured centralist Republicans like Michael Bloomberg – back the more centralist Mr Kasich.

So you could say a brokered convention is quite possible in mathematical terms. It will be more of a question if the Republican Party establishment has the stomach for a floor fight with Mr Trump, and the risk him running as an independent. 

It could be they do opt for a brokered convention, figuring it’s better to throw this year’s race than allow the anti-free market Trump to redefine the party, or damage it for decades.

If so, here’s how a brokered convention would play out. In the first round of voting, almost all state delegates are bound by party rules to follow the wishes of primary voters in their state. The 99 delegates from Florida, for example, will all automatically cast a vote for Mr Trump, regardless of their personal preference.

But in the second round of voting, 57% of delegates are free to vote as they like.

And in the third round, 81% are unbound.

There are wheels within wheels. In most states, delegates are taken from the party hierarchy. But in a handful, like California, the winning candidate can hand-select them, meaning they are more likely to remain loyal during later rounds of voting.

Recent conventions have been more like coronations, but a brokered convention used to be relatively common. The last brokered convention on the Republican side saw Gerald Ford prevail over Ronald Regan. For the Democrats, in the same year, Jimmy Carter prevailed in a floor fight against Ted Kennedy in 1980. 

It’s easy to see a majority of delegates – given they’re often drawn from the party establishment – being anti-Mr Trump.

But an alternative is far from clear. Mr Cruz is almost equality unpopular with the party establishment. He’s regarded as too extreme a social conservative to win a general election, and his stance on free trade and other economic issues is, like the TPP-bashing Trump, protectionist and leaning Democrat.

And outside his Ohio win, the affable but dull Mr Kasich has struggled for any profile, and finished in single digits in most states.

Unbound delegates can vote for anyone, including a candidate who didn’t take part in the primaries. But the most obvious white knight candidate, Michael Bloomberg, has ruled himself out. Mitt Romney is circling, but he has already tried and failed on the national stage.

It’s hard to see any elegant solution. The lack of an alternative candidate will likely see Mr Trump as the Republican nominee and polls show him losing the race against Hillary Clinton.

As Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman for George W Bush’s administration tweeted yesterday as Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton extended their leads, “What essentially happened today is @HillaryClinton was elected president. We have eight months of hyperventilating before its official.”

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