Trump pulls ahead in two large battleground states, Johnson & Stein blocked from debates

Donald Trump has pulled a nose ahead in the two largest battleground states, Ohio and Florida, according to a poll-of-polls.

If he maintains his lead in those states, that would mean Mr Trump would only need to add two smaller states to his tally – Nevada and Colorado would do it – to claim a majority of the Electoral College vote and the Whitehouse. Polls are close in each.

Source: fivethirtyeight.com. Click to zoom

Mr Trump has also edged ahead of Mrs Clinton in a number of national polls.

The numbers could well get worse for the Democrat as surveys quoted above include polling before her pneumonia-related collapse.

The next pivotal moment in the race could come with the first debate on September 26.

The focus will be on whether Mr Trump can maintain the lower-key, more presidential style that has served him so well over the past few weeks. And whether Mrs Clinton is back to match fitness, and can combat questions about her health, and tendency toward secretiveness.

Mr Trump today released a second, more detailed doctor’s letter. It revealed he is overweight of his height and on a cholesterol-lowering drug, but no major health issues. Read the full letter here.

The candidate's ongoing move toward the centre saw him drop his "birther" conspiracy theory today, with his campaign releasing the statement that "Mr. Trump believes that President Obama was born in the United States."

The clarification came from his comms team after Mr Trump was ambivalent on the question during an interview. In typically Trumpian twist, he also claimed it was Mrs Clinton who first started the rumour that Mr Obama was born outside the US.

Johnson, Stein blocked from debates
Meanwhile, the Commission on Presidential Debates has formally announced that third-party presidential candidates Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) that they will not be allowed to take part in the four debates.

Neither met the threshold of an average of 15% support over four major polls.

RealClearPolitics' poll-of-polls has Mr Johnson (who served two terms as governor of New Mexico while still a Republican) on an average 8.3% support and Ms Stein on 2.7%.

The New York Times' poll-of-polls has Mr Johnson on 9% and does not include a number for Ms Stein.

Mr Johnson has gained a reasonable amount of press with his quirky stoner-conservatism, and support from disgruntled Republicans and Democrats saw him hit 13% in one recent poll.

However, the construction magnate stumbled badly during a recent TV interview, asking "What is Aleppo?" when asked about the Syrian hotspot.