TPP foe Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton for first time

Bad news for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) boosters: for the first time, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head poll.

Of course, it's very early days in the Republican primary (the presidential election is not until November next year). And it's traditional for an insurgent candidate to make a splash in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire before being closed down by the party establishment.

But there are three crucial differences this time, The Economist notes.

One, there's no obvious establishment candidate this time. Jeb Bush is the closest fit but, even before Mr Trump's arrival, he was struggling to break 10% in most polls. Beyond Mr Trump (registering between 25% to 30% support), the field of 21 is widely spread.

Two, Mr Trump has moderate policies. Insurgent candidates are usually to the right of the average Republican voter. That makes sense. Only members and enthusiasts vote in primaries and caucuses (rules vary by state) and, as usual, the other 21 candidates are being careful to out-conservative each other in debates. Not Trump. True, his manifesto defies serious analysis (he has a "policy platform of bumper-sticker depth and subtlety" as The Economist puts it). But Mr Trump has been ferociously hostile to free-trade deals, including the TPP, promoted higher taxes for hedge funds and corporations who are "acting against US interests" (presumably by profit-shifting). He has also praised Canada's state-run health system (he is against Obamacare, which extends subsidised health insurance and promotes record-sharing between health providers, to the great benefit of NZX-listed Orion Health, but has yet to say what he will replace it with beyond the fact it will be "something terrific"). Take away his cray-cray talk about forcing Mexico to fund the building of a giant wall, and he could easily be a Democrat: Hillary Clinton opposes the TPP; so do most Democrats – meaning Obama had to reply on Republicans to push through the trading authority legislation that will allow him to sign the deal without Senate approval, should TPP talks ever wrap up.

Three, insurgent candidates usually draw support from a particular wing of the Republican party, such as Christian conservatives or Tea Party fiscal hawks. Mr Trump, according to one focus group, is drawing support from Christian, Tea Party and self-described Republican moderates. What draws them to Mr Trump? The common denominator seems to be anger against Obama, the state of the US and hapless Republican leaders. They want an outsider candidate. And the more the establishment bashes Trump, the more he looks like an attractive alternative.

Lastly, a lot has been made of Mr Trump's pledge not to run as an independent, as Ross Perot did in 1992, taking 19% of the vote from Bush senior and allowing Bill Clinton into the White House.

But there's an easy out here. Mr Trump could finish the primary race with the most delegates but not all delegates are bound to follow the wishes of voters in their states (in modern times they have been merely a coronation but, historically, the Republican and Democrat conventions were genuine forums of debate where representatives from each state changed their minds or, in more low-brow fashion, sought to thwart a particular candidate). At the Republican convention next year, some delegates from Trump-supporting states could decide to vote for an establishment candidate like Bush regardless. Mr Trump will say the party is not following its members' will, so his pledge is off. TPP opponents won't mind at all.