The Twyford effect: Greens up 3 points

Phil Twyford’s campaign against Chinese non-resident house buyers has failed to dent the government’s support – at least according to the latest poll.

A One News-Colmar Brunton poll has National down 1 to 47% and Labour up 1 to 32% — movements within the margin of error (see full results in graphic below).

The only movement that touched on statistical significance was the Greens advancing 3 points to 13%. That could be liberals alienated by Twyford's racebaiting, but one poll does not make trend.

Unlike a Roy Morgan poll released Friday, which caught just two days of Twyford campaign across its 13-day survey period, the One News poll (July 11 to 15) was all taken after the Labour MP’s data dump.

Growing pessimism
There are two notes of concern for the government in the survey, however.

One is that 41% were pessimistic that things would improve.  Only 36% thought they would. The rest thought the economy would remain about where it is.

The result, which came on the heels of Greece’s debt default, the Chinese stock market crash and plunging dairy prices, was one of National’s worst in its current term.

One News-Colmar Brunton polling has always shown a more optimistic than pessimistic economic outlook since around mid-2009.

NZ First holds balance
The second note of concern for the govenment is that – this time similarly to the Roy Morgan survey – left and centre parties enjoy majority support.

The Greens, who recently elected the centre-leaning James Shaw as co-leader, are up 3% to 13%. That means Labour, the Greens and NZ First (steady on 7%) hold 52% support between them.

Act (0.4%) and the inflighting Conservatives (0.0%) seem less likely than ever to build support on National's right flank.

Over the weekend, in a slight shift of position, Housing Minister Nick Smith refused to rule out a public register of foreign buyers or restrictions on purchasing. However, Mr Smith said he wanted to make policy decisions based on solid data (although that didn't stop him quoting a stat he said indicated as little as1.2% of NZ's housing stock was in foreign hands). Legislation is expected to pass in October to enable Budget 2015's requirements for non-resident buyers to register with IRD and open a New Zealand bank account.

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