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TAB Punt at a Million: and then there were none

How sole survivor from 47,724 participants fared from this morning's games.
 
TAB bookmaker Mark Stafford breaks down the betting for the Rugby World Cup on NBR Radio and on demand on MyNBR Radio.

Chris Keall
Mon, 21 Sep 2015

UPDATE Monday: How did our Punt at a Million sole survivor fare this morning?

"He’s out. He picked Uruguay to beat Wales," says TAB spokeswoman Kate Gourdie.

However, there is a consulation prize for Russell Walker: the TAB is flying him to the UK to watch the semi-finals, third-place play-off and the final.

UPDATE Sunday: The TAB says after the opening World Cup games — including South Africa's shock loss to Japan and Georgia downing Tonga — a single entrant remains in its One Punt at a Million competition.

He has been named as Russell Walker (22), a part-time security guard from Canterbury.

He still has to correctly pick the outcome of all the remaining games to collect the $1 million.

As of Friday 47,724 people were in the running for the prize. The competition requires (or in the case of 47,723, required) people to pick if a game would be a draw or name the winner — and if so whether the margin would be above or below 12 points.

How they fell:

FINAL NUMBER OF ENTRIES - 47,724

ENG 35 V 11 FIJI - 35,730

TGA 10 V 17 GEO - 452

IRE 50 V 7 CAN - 439

RSA 32 V 34 JAP - 2

FRA 32 V 10 ITA - 1

Despite his quirky early calls, Mr Walker's other punts seem more mainstream. He says he's picked England and France to go far, and the All Blacks to win.

The TAB better hope his luck holds.

As things stand, the free competition designed to popularise gambling — or at least offer upsell opportunities to the real thing — is looking like a bust. Certainly, only one person has any reason to check out the Punt at a Million site on Monday.

The TAB says in regular betting, 88 people picked Japan to win, with one $100 bet returning $1900.

EARLIER: Punter puts $50K on the All Blacks to win the World Cup, TAB launches Punt at $1m
TAB bookie Mark Stafford says a $50,000 bet has just come in from a punter in the Waikato (at $2.25) for the All Blacks to win the World Cup.

The largest bet, however, remains the $130,000 on the All Blacks to lose, posted by an individual Mr Stafford will only identify as "Dave" (at $1.55 on August 28. It will return $71,500 if New Zealand does choke). 

The second largest bet in favour of the ABs taking the tile is $30,000 at $2.50.

In terms of overall bets on the winner:

  • 43% of the money is on the All Blacks
  • 14% is on England
  • 12% Ireland
  • 10% Australia
  • 9% South Africa
  • 3% Wales
  • 9% Rest of the pack

"Dave's" bet is the largest ever placed on the Rugby World Cup.

The biggest bet ever placed with the TAB was $225,000 (at $1.08) on Brazil to beat China at the 2002 FIFA World Cup. Brazil won 4-0.

For the current Rugby World Cup, the TAB says 30,000 have so far entered its free Punt at $1 million competition. 

Of those:

  • 89% of entries are picking the All Blacks to win the final
  • 59% picking them to win by 12 and under
  • 30% are picking a 13+ point victory.
  • 3.9% of entries have picked England to win the final by 12 and under
  • 2.1% of entries have picked Australia to win the final by 12 and under
Chris Keall
Mon, 21 Sep 2015
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