Sorry David, it’s time you left

OPENING SALVO

I blame myself, and the NBR.

The morning after the last election, I hosted a party including most of the major political commentators, along with strategists from Labour, Mana and the Greens.

 We were provisioned with a dozen cases of Veuve Clicquot won by a friend in an NBR competition.

 The first guests arrived around ten and the first cork was popped shortly before.

Soon after lunch, someone decided it would be a good idea to invite David Cunliffe and David Shearer to resolve who should replace Phil Goff.

Texts were duly despatched.  Mr Cunliffe declined.  Mr Shearer turned up.

To those who had enjoyed five hours of sun and wine, Mr Shearer seemed stunningly articulate.

We were impressed with his stories from the Middle East, his assessment of where Labour’s campaign had gone wrong, and his understanding that his party needed to aggressively seek new personnel as National had in the 2000s.  Plus we liked him.  He had shown up to the party.

Within a week – and before Labour had got around to its leadership roadshow – all the political columnists and talkback hosts who spent the afternoon with him had publicly endorsed him.

Some in Labour allege a right-wing conspiracy but, if anything, the balance of those at the party was to the left.

There was no right-wing conspiracy.  But there was certainly impaired judgement – by those at the party and by Mr Cunliffe for his no-show.

Labour’s misjudgement
It’s true Labour is still up 5% since the election, but that is off the back of its worst result since 1928.  Worse, all the polls again point in the wrong direction.

In the March quarter, when growth was surprisingly anaemic and John Key’s government struggled from one mini-scandal to the next, Labour edged up.

But since the Budget, the big fall in unemployment and presumably stronger growth in the June quarter, the trend for Labour has reversed.

When averaged, recent polls suggest National has an outside chance of governing alone or with a comfortable majority with Winston Peters.

This enviable position comes with Mr Key yet to turn his full attention to re-election.  What will happen when he does?

Labour has consistently underestimated the prime minister – both his intelligence and his determination to win. 

While it regarded Don Brash as an evil genius, it dismissed Mr Key as an amiable dullard.

  Michael Cullen’s personal economist, Peter Harris, publicly called him a lightweight.  Helen Clark boasted she would make mincemeat of him in the 2008 leaders’ debates but it was she who had to eat humble pie.

  In reality, even more so than Ms Clark, Mr Key is on top of the detail of every portfolio and can quote any social and economic statistic at will (which makes his too-regular claims of “forgetfulness” so unbelievable).

  By contrast, Mr Shearer sometimes comes across as capable of forgetting his own name.

  He simply would not cope under the pressure of an election campaign and it is awful to imagine the debacle were Mr Shearer silly enough to agree to a leaders’ debate with Mr Key.

  In terms of his determination to win, Labour fantasises that Mr Key’s heart is no longer in the job.  The ruthlessness with which he is addressing political negatives belies it.

  Labour promised 10,000 new state houses annually.  National trumped them with 12,000 private-sector ones.  Labour said it would feed the kids.  Mr Key went ahead and did so.

  Now, Mr Key has become Mr Public Transport with a $3 billion Auckland rail system while Gerry Brownlee has finally reached agreement with the Christchurch City Council on another $5 billion of city infrastructure.  What might be next?

If Mr Shearer is floundering in opposition, his colleagues are surely also terrified about how he would get on as prime minister.

Any Shearer government would have to rely on both the Greens and NZ First and possibly Mana.

Being prime minister requires instant recall of information, first-class communication and people-management skills and the ability to make snap judgements on the most difficult issues that ministers have been unable to resolve.

It is demanding enough when a government is cohesive.  There must be serious questions about whether Mr Shearer could even do the job managing the knavish Mr Peters and a Russel Norman embittered by Labour denying him the finance minister’s job that the former communist so covets.

A Shearer government has the feeling of Gillard or Rudd.

Next party?
I had planned to have my next politico’s party the morning after the 2014 election.  Steven Joyce, Bill English, Judith Collins, Mr Brownlee and Simon Bridges were to have been invited.

No more.  Recent events demand urgent changes to both date and guest list.

An application is with the editor for a dozen cases of Veuve Clicquot for next Sunday.

Mr Cunliffe, Grant Robertson and Andrew Little are top of the guest list.

Of these, despite his colleagues despising him, Mr Cunliffe is most likely to be able to foot it with Mr Key.

Disclosure: Matthew Hooton’s company Exceltium has worked with Auckland Transport and the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority on issues associated with the infrastructure projects mentioned above.