UPDATE 10.42am: All of the bidders have suggested a mix of cable and wireless technologies to reach rural homes and schools; Telecom and Vodafone are pushing LTE (or "4G").
But will the rural broadband initiative (RBI) winner get handed a slice of radio spectrum, or get it subsidised?
"Successful RBI bidders will need to compete for 4G spectrum as any other party," a spokeswoman for Communications Minister Steven Joyce's office told NBR.
"However, the government will consider relaxing acquisition caps on spectrum management rights in the 2.3, 2.5 and 2.6GHz bands to support the possibility of RBI bidders offering 4G services without requiring access to the 700Mhz digital dividend spectrum."
So-called "digital dividend" 700MHz spectrum will go up for auction after after the analogue-to-digital TV transition is complete - a region-by-region process due to be completed by the end of 2013.
Communications Minister Steven Joyce has named the three bidders on the final shortlist for the government's $300 million rural broadband initiative.
They are:
1. Telecom/Vodafone
2. Torotoro Waea
3. FX Networks/Opengate (a consortium involving Kordia and Woosh Wireless)
The field had previously been whittled down to five contenders.
One was the Regional Fibre Group, a consortium of lines companies whose patchwork bid faced a tough road once Mr Joyce altered the original tender to emphasise national infrastructure.
In a statement this morning, the minister said there would be a "negotiation phase" later this month
There is no specific timetable for signing a final contract. A spokeswoman for Mr Joyce told NBR that it would likely be early in the New Year.
The network will be "open access" or open to any retailer - meaning, say, if Telecom and Vodafone win, 2degrees could potentially tap the mobile side of the network for extended cellular coverage, while any ISP could resell the fibre.
Who has the edge?
The Torotoro Waea bid - backed by an alliance of 26 un-named iwi and technology supporters - seems largely a quixotic gesture, especially given it does not include The Huataki Trust, the pan-tribal group that holds spectrum rights (and a minority slice in 2degrees).
Torotoro Waea has said it plans to link 1000 marae on top of the tender's requirement to provide 5Mbit/s broadband to 800% of rural households, and 1Mbit/s to the balance, and connect 93% of rural schools. But it has not revealed, at least to media, how it would meant Mr Joyce's requirement to co-fund national infrastructure.
In any event, the Maori bid relies on Opto Networks for its infrastructure - a start-up that, in an earlier round of RBI bidding, said it would FX Networks' fibre if successful.
FX Networks has a partial national network, and has already successfully landed a contract to manage and extend the government-owned high-speed education and research network, Karen. Certainly, judging by the frequency with which its name-checked in presentations about new telecommunications investment since regulatory changes, FX seems to have fans in the MED, which is advising Mr Joyce.
FX partner OpenGate is a consortium that includes Kordia and Woosh Wireless.
While Woosh is a lame dog, Kordia has wireless infrastructure experience with clients including 2degrees in New Zealand, and Optus in Australia.
In a statement this morning, FX, Woosh and Kordia pledged to "exceed the MED’s service level targets by delivering 10Mbps to 83% of rural New Zealand, and breaking through the 80% coverage target within two years."
The Telecom/Vodafone bid calls for Chorus to extend Telecom's fibre network, including spurs to Vodafone celltowers that would provide extra throw.
There's no doubt the two company's have national infrastructure capability, and the financial wherewithal to maintain and expand beyond the government's six-year subsidy.
And given the minister is talking about a mix of fibre and wireless, Vodafone most obviously has the wireless side wrapped up.
It would be a neat and tidy solution that could be easily dispatched in the New Year, leaving Mr Joyce free to concentrate on the quagmire that is the urban Crown fibre project.
So: Telecom and Vodafone could be in the cat-bird seat for rural broadband - though it'll be a close run thing.
Telecom's worry, however, has to be that the RBI is being lined up as a consolation prize, with Regional Fibre Group members like Vector (Auckland), CityLink (Wellington) and Enable (Christchurch) in line to win their regions for the larger ultrafast broadband (UFB) initiative.
One unknown at this point: whether the RBI winner will get free or subsidised 4G spectrum, or whether it will have to take its chances in the auction that will follow the analog TV switchoff.
Chris Keall
Wed, 08 Dec 2010