Roy Morgan poll has Collins scandal denting Nats' support

A new poll has better news for Labour than Tuesday's disaster Herald-Digipoll survey - despite the two polls being taken over the same fortnight to March 16.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (45.5%, down 3%) now level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45.5%, up 4.5%).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has risen slightly to 31.5% (up 1%), the Greens have jumped to 14% (up 3.5%), New Zealand First 3.5% (down 1%), Mana Party 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Internet Party (0%, unchanged) while support for Others is 1% (up 1%).

The only constant between the Herald-Digipoll and Roy Morgan surveys is a big jump for the Greens.

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the election would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 135.5pts (down 6pts) with 61% (down 4pts) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says: “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (45.5%, down 3%) now dead level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45.5%, up 4.5%) after Prime Minister John Key called the New Zealand Election for September 20, 2014 – two months earlier than expected.

“The fall in National’s vote comes amid the scandal engulfing Justice Minister Judith Collins, which continues to grow. Collins is accused of a conflict of interest in her dealings with New Zealand dairy company Oravida – her husband is a director of the firm.

“Oravida is a substantial exporter of dairy products to China, and there are questions about who paid for a dinner Collins had with Oravida founder and chairman Deyi Stone Shi in Shanghai last year. The Justice Minister has claimed that only tourism matters were discussed at the dinner, although Prime Minister Key has already expressed his disappointment in Collins.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from March 3-16, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.