Problems with tsunami alert system, Brownlee admits

Gerry Brownlee has admitted there are problems with Civil Defence's tsunami alert system. 

The Acting Civil Defence Minister told The Nation he wants to look at how the system works after it took delays and confusion following Monday's magnitude 7.8 quake.

Following the quake at 12.02am, Civil Defence erroneously tweeted that there was no tsunami threat. At 12.37am it posted:

There is no tsunami threat to New Zealand following the cheviot earthquake #eqnz

— MCDEM (@NZcivildefence) November 13, 2016

That post was retweeted by 768 people, including the Prime Minister, and relayed in good faith by media including NBR and RNZ.

After that all-clear, some may have gone back to bed, or at least put evacuation plans on hold.

But at 12.56am, Civil Defence tweeted that the situation could change, at 1.01am it tweeted the first of a series of ongoing tsunami warnings. Official alerts followed the same pattern.

But even after the situation became clear, it took several hours for the public in some areas to be given information and there was initial confusion about which areas were covered by the alert.

While Mr Brownlee says it took under an hour for the 16 local Civil Defence boards to receive information regarding a tsunami risk, some didn't pass that on to public quickly enough.

"That's a problem - that's what we've got to sort out. There's no question about that," says Mr Brownlee, adding that "the Civil Defence bunker in Wellington is concerned about the response".

Mr Brownlee confirmed the government has looking at a text message alerting system "for some time".

"There is a contingency inside the budget to pay for that, and we would hope to get that up and running as soon as possible."

Mr Brownlee says he was given an 18-month timeline for its implementation, which is "not acceptable".

"That's a little too long."

Mr Brownlee says he was unaware $500,000 of taxpayer money had been spent on an in-house alerting system called 'Tsunado'.

Tsunado, pitched as a "life-saving technology", is a compact radio alert unit intended to be used in offices and homes.

It has since been shelved, despite Civil Defence Ministery director John Hamilton saying two years ago it would be a "critical component" in Civil Defence alerting.

"I'm the Acting Minister, I haven't been in the role very long," says Mr Brownlee. "I'm not aware of [Tsunado] — but I will look into it."

However, he added that Civil Defence has been working on an "acceptable and working system" for quite some time, and "it may be that some of the analysis on [Tsunado] did not quite fit the bill".

In June, Civil Defence Auckland dropped a locally developed disaster alert app for one developed offshore by the Red Cross.

At that time, Civil Defence Minister Nikki Kaye (now on health leave) took a similar line to that taken by Brownlee today, telling a txt-based system was being looked as not everybody would download a smartphone app.

 NBR understands Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees may be required to auto-txt customers in an affected area.

Any public alert system will only be as good as the information being fed into it. Earlier this week, GeoNet director Ken Gledhill is pushing for a funding top-up to allow for 24/7 quake and tsunami monitoring. Dr Gledhill says although there are automated systems, a human presence is needed around the clock too. Currently, there are two staff on-call after hours, but both have already worked a day shift. Dr Gledhill's request was the focus of a question from Labour's Clare Curran in Parliament on Thursday. The government's reply was distilled by Ms Curran as "maybe" and "some time".

Today, Mr Brownlee dodged the question (see transcript below).

Another issue for the Acting Civil Defence Minister: the 111 emergency calling system operated by Spark, which fell over for 30 minutes after Monday's quake.

RAW DATA: Acting Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee interviewed by Patrick Gower on The Nation.

Gower: How big a problem is it that Geonet isn’t staffed 24 hours a day?

Brownlee: Well, it didn’t stop everyone knowing there had been an earthquake, did it?

Yeah, but we might have just been lucky. I mean, that’s—

No, no, Paddy, with all due respect, the felt effect of this was enormous. People knew what had happened, and within a very short time, GeoNet was able to pick up – as they were alerted the same way as everybody else – on the size of it. They had to revise that later, as it was not a 20-second, 30-second earthquake. It was one and a half minutes, so it got elevated up. The reality is we all felt what happened and know the effects of what’s happened.

Yeah, but as Minister of Civil Defence, or Acting Minister of Civil Defence, is it really good enough to not have the earthquake monitoring system not staged 24 hours a day because there isn’t enough funding? I mean—

Well, hang on a minute. The sensors are operating 24/7. The international connections are operating 24/7. And this is—you need to get someone from GNS to fully explain how it all works, but a lot of them—

With respect, they have explained how it works, and they said they don’t have someone in there 24 hours a day.

Yeah, I’m just trying to tell you—

They don’t have enough money.

I’m just trying to tell you that whether or not there is a person there 24/7, the monitoring takes place 24/7 as part of a big wide network.

Okay, well, we can go around—

We can spend—

We can go around and around in circles here.

We are going around in circles.

The question is will the Government step up and fund it so we’ve got someone in there 24 hours a day or not?

Well, I’ve just explained to you what the situation is, how GNS works and how GeoNet is owned and operated, and of course, we’ll want to have a talk about what we do in the future.

And how quickly will that happen? Because we’re talking here a 95% chance of another earthquake in the next 30 days. That’s what we’re working with – the nature of it.

Paddy, it would not a matter who is there monitoring. They cannot stop that happening. That is a mathematical calculation of probability, not fact that it will happen, and if you look at the decay curve, each day that goes by, the probability changes. But let me very clear – whether or not there is someone sitting at a desk for 24 hours waiting to see if anything happens won’t stop it happening if it’s going to at all.

Okay, well, let’s move on and look at the tsunami alert system, then, because that’s another part of this Civil Defence reaction that is simply not working – taking an hour the other night to get an alert out about the tsunami. Is that good enough, Minister?

Oh, look, I think there’ll be a number of reasons why that took so long, but in general, I’d have to say that we do want to have a good look at how that alerting system works, but please remember that the first indications were that the epicentre of this was inland, and it was. What they didn’t know at that early stage was that it had created, effectively, a fault that ran about 150 kilometres north-east into the sea, and at that point, a tsunami became a possibility.

Yes, and at that point, when it became a possibility, it still took hours after that for the information to be disseminated to the 16 local boards.

No, it was just under an hour, and when it gets to those local areas, they make the decision about how they put those alerts out.

Yes, and some of those local boards, as you know, took hours to get it out to the public.

That’s right, and that’s a problem, and that’s what we’ve got to sort out. There’s no question about that, and I’m not going to argue with you on this one, Paddy.

And how quickly will you sort it is the question.

Well, at the moment, we’re dealing with some pretty big issues about access into some parts of New Zealand that are isolated, some questions about how quickly they can be reconnected, and of course, the wider economic effects on not only those areas, those families and individuals, but on the wider country as well. But in the big mix of everything we do, that is something that we’re definitely going to be looking at.

But is it urgent? Can you reassure the public? They’re scared, Gerry Brownlee. Can you reassure them that you will do something urgently about the tsunami alert?

I think every local authority around the country will be looking to improve that as we speak. They will have done that over the last couple of days, and I now that the Civil Defence bunker in Wellington is concerned about the response that came from that. So yes, there will be something immediate. But let me be very clear about this—

Minister, sorry to interrupt, because this is all coming back to one thing, isn’t it? We got lucky. You got lucky. Civil Defence got lucky. We got lucky the other night. If it had been a high tide; if it had been bigger; if it had been in a different place – we weren’t ready, Minister.

Well, I dispute the last part. The first part, I think any time that you can experience an event of this size and have the—so few people, two people losing their lives only – and it’s still too many – then you might say that you got lucky. I’m not sure that those people would call themselves lucky.

No, but do you agree that New Zealand and the Government—

Paddy, you’re doing most of the talking. I don’t know why I’m here. No, I don’t, because in reality, we’re a country that lives with its risk. We all know that, and I’ve got to make this point – the biggest warning you ever get for a tsunami possibility is the earthquake itself. Now, it would be good if the—and it will be improved in the future so that the particular tsunami risk, which can’t be known immediately, will be much sharper in getting alerts out to people. We’re actually—Can I tell you this too—

This is a really important place—

Let me tell you this much—

This is a really important place to pick up on that, because there has been—

No, I want to tell you something else.

No, but there has been—

Look, you’re fixated on this, and I do want to tell you this.

Yes?

The first thing is for some time now, we’ve been looking at a national alerting system for these types of events, and the request for proposal to the telcos, who have to be involved in this, is in the stage of being prepared. It’s very close to going out.

This is a—Just for the viewer, this is a text-message alert system, isn’t it?

That’s right, and there is a contingency inside the Budget to pay for that, and we would hope to get that up and running as soon as possible. It is not something that is going to happen overnight.

Okay, so how long is ‘as soon as possible’? Will we have a text-message alert system when? Months? Years? When?

Well, the timeline I was given yesterday I have concluded is not acceptable. I’ve asked them to relook at that.

Okay, so what was the timeline yesterday, Minister? What was the timeline yesterday?

Well, let me—Can I just explain what goes in behind it, Paddy? Because there’s a certain amount of, obviously—a considerable amount of software that’s got to get put in place as well as various other electronic protocols that I’m not fully over. But I was told that it could take up to 18 months, and I think that’s a little too long.

Right, so 18 months before we get this text-message alert system in this country when we’ve got a 95% warning of another earthquake in the next month?

I tell you what, Paddy. I think you and the rest of your front-line people that I’ve heard making all sorts of pronouncements over the last couple of days should get together in a room and tell us how you do it quicker, because you all seem to know a lot more than the rest of us.

No, we’re speaking on behalf of Kiwis, Minister, who are scared and worried—

And those Kiwis expect us to do it properly. They expect us to do it properly. I’ve been in a country very recently where they’ve got a warning system, and I witnessed people who were told that there was a major weather event coming that would be problematic simply go about their daily lives as if nothing had happened. So we do have to have a clear understanding of what we’re being warned about and know the triggers that will put that warning out in the first place. And let’s have a public acceptance that if they get that warning, there is what you do. It is not a straightforward thing.

Well, let’s look at warning systems, then, because there’s one, Tsunado, which is an alert system placed in homes. You know about it. $500,000 worth of taxpayer’s money has gone towards it, and it’s sitting on the shelf in Civil Defence. Two years ago, John Hamilton, who was the director, said it would be a critical component, so why is that on the shelf?

Paddy, Patrick—

You’ve got a system on the shelf.

Patrick, I’m the acting minister. I haven’t been in the role very long. I’m not aware of that, but I will look into it.

Yeah, because why is $500,000 worth of development of a system that was – and I’ve got the documentation here. I’ll give it to your office if you want – that John Hamilton said—

That’ll be very helpful.

It was going to be a critical component of this. Next minister, it’s gone on the shelf, and you’re telling us today it’s 18 months until a decent system comes in.

No, no, no, no, hang on a minute. You’re doing what guys like you are very good at. You’re asking for everything to be given to you in very short, succinct millisecond answers, taking some of that and putting your own interpretation over the top of it. I’ll find out. I’ll find out what that’s all about, but I can tell you that Civil Defence have been working on an acceptable and workable warning system for quite some time. It may be that some of the analysis on that particular system didn’t quite fit the bill. I don’t know that. I’ll find out.