Politicians make MMP threshold picks ahead of Electoral Commission review today

An Electoral Commission is due to report today on its MMP review in a briefing that begins at 10am.

On TVNZ's Q+A programme yesterday Labour's Lianne Dalziel and Mana leader Hone Harawira predicted the commission will recommend lowering the threshold for getting MPs into parliament from 5% to 4% of the party vote.

National has argued it should be kept at 5%. On Q+A, NZ First leader Winston Peters took the same side.

Lowering the threshold would create “instability” and “chaos”, he said. “If you’re good enough, you should make 5%.”

Ms Dalziel argued a 4% threshold that would avoid thousands of wasted votes, as happened to New Zealand First in 1999 (when it got 4.23% of the vote) and 2008 (when it got 4.07%).

Keep coat-tailing?
The review will also make a recommendation on "coat-tailing", or bringing a proportional number of MPs into parliament if a party wins at least one electorate seat.

Coat-tailing was potentially crucial for National at the last election. The party did not actively contest the Auckland seat of Epsom, clearing the way for ACT leader John Banks to win the seat.

However, ACT's share of the nationwide party vote was so low (1.07%) that Mr Banks was not able to bring anyone on ACT's list in with him.

Similarly, United leader Peter Dunne retained Ohariu, but United's 0.6% share of the party vote meant noone came in on his coat-tails. (See the 2011 vote share here).

Quid pro quo deal
It is thought the Electoral Commission might recommend keeping the threshold at 5%, but in a quid pro quo also say coat-tailing should go.

MPs will be under pressure to accept the non-partisan Commission's recommendations, but won't necessarily follow them through.

The existing 5% threshold only exists because parliament ignored a royal commission recommendation for 4%.

More electorate MPs
The commission is also looking at whether there should be more electorate MPs. There are 70 electorate MMPs in the 120 member house (with the 120 limit raised if there is "over-hang" or a party winning more electorate seats than its proportion of the party vote).

Labour sees "no disadvantage" in more electoral MPs, Ms Dalziel said.

Mr Harawira supports a higher number of electorate MPs in the 120-member house. Such a more would increase the number of Maori MPs, the Mana leader says.

Watch the full Q+A panel on MMP here.