Political & Economic week ahead: Will voting yes to a flag change hurt National?

Parliament is in recess this week and most of the action will be taking place elsewhere.

The two more significant themes of the week look set to be Finance Minister Bill English’s regular February speech talking business, taking place this Thursday.

As with most previous efforts of this kind, it can be expected to traverse the economic scene and outlook beyond Budget 2016. There will no doubt be a great deal about Auckland issues and, in particular, housing and construction, supply, and regulation.

And, although previous features of this kind have usually included a few swipes at the Auckland Council, and its approach to regulation, Mr English might be a little more kind this year.

It is not just there is a local body election year on the way and the government will have to work with whoever or can do is choose to elect.

The government has also come to a way of working with  Auckland Council and it wants that to continue, no matter who gets elected this October.

More broadly, the finance minister can be expected to remind people that the economy is actually growing quite well considering New Zealand's largest export is in the doldrums.

Historically, this has never happened before. A good rule of thumb  has been that if the country's largest export – historically, meat and wool, and only in the past 20 years dairy – has been low, then the economy has been either in recession or not much out of it.

Yet current GDP growth is sauntering along roughly halfway between 2- 3%, and a number of economists have recently upgraded their forecasts to the high end of that band.

The other theme of the week, a more straightforward political one, is the rising crescendo about the flag referendum.

The weekend saw the launch of a campaign to persuade New Zealanders to vote for the change option, even if they do not really want to.

Rugby players – most prominently, outgoing giants Richie McCaw and Dan Carter – have voiced enthusiasm for getting rid of a flag that looks so much like the Australian one.

As argued elsewhere, with even many National Party supporters  opposing change,  and with polls showing only about 35% of New Zealanders in favour of the alternative flag on offer, this is a hard sell.

And it does seem as though that even if the phalanx of Kiwi worthies enlisted in the pro-change campaign succeeded in raising the level of support, it is going to be a begrudging win.

That poses difficulties for National in the future: A flag which only has begrudging support is probably going to see that grudge harden into something firmer and more antagonistic.

Want to listen to the day's hottest stories, plus interviews and panel discussions? Stream NBR Radio's latest free 40-minute podcast from iHeartRadio, Tunein, or iTunes.