Peters punishes National in Northland

Northland preliminary result, 100% of booths counted*

Winston Peters NZ First: 15,359 (54.07%)
Mark Osborne National: 11,347 (39.95%)
Willow-Jean Prime Labour: 1315 (4.63%)
Others: 384 (1.35%)

* Excluding special votes

2014 general election result

Mike Sabin National: 18,269 (52.74%)
Willow-Jean Prime Labour: 8969 (25.89%)
David Clendon Green: 3639 (10.51%)
Others: 3760 (10.86%)
(NZ First did not stand a candidate. The party received 4546 list votes)

NZ First leader Winston Peters has easily won the Northland byelection, overturning one of National's largest majorities.

His victory means National drops from 60 to 59 seats in the 121 seat Parliament, while NZ First will add an MP (the person* who replaces Mr Peters on its list as he becomes an electorate MP), taking it from 11 to 12.

Mark Osborne was attempting to hold the seat for National following the resignation of Mike Sabin, who cited what he described as "personal issues."

The collapse in Labour's vote shows the vast majority of the party's supporters heeded Andrew Little's hints to fall in behind Winston Peters. (The Greens, Conservatives and United Future did not field candidates; ACT told its supporters to get behind National.)

And, while special votes are still to be counted, the other major trend seems to be that turnout (28,468) was lower than the general election (35,707). A few thousand disillusioned National voters appear to have stayed home.

Issues that have loomed large in the campaign included Mr Peters' assertion National had neglected Northland; the weakness of Mr Osborne, who was mired in a minor council funding scandal; National and NZ First offering voters "pork"; and, perhaps looming largest of all, the bush telegraph rumours over the reason for Mr Sabin's resignation, and the "who knew what, when?" controversy, which will continue.

Too clever by half?
At the September election, Labour's vote dropped, while NZ First's increased. During an Ask Me Anything session with NBR, Andrew Little conceded some of his party's voters had stayed right to NZ First. The question now: for all he will enjoy giving National a black eye in Northland, will Mr Little come to rue giving Mr Peters such a strong new platform?

All opposition parties will crow but it will be the NZ First leader who can claim bragging rights for dealing John Key his first major political setback. And of course Winston has been all over the map with his past coalition deals. No one can predict who he'll ally with in 2017.

Questions for National
For National, the major questions are: who will take the rap, and will the party take it as a message to clean house?

NBR political editor Rob Hosking says National's campaign "Exploded is the image of National's electoral invincibility: to call the campaign ham-fisted is an insult to pig products." Campaign manager Steven Joyce will have to cop the blame for those tactical blunders. But cleaning up the dirty politics image will have to start at the top. Will Mr Key take that responsibility, or blame tonight's loss on a freak set of circumstances?

In practical terms, National now needs the support of both UnitedFuture's Peter Dunne and ACT's David Seymour to pass legislation. The immediate casualty could be Resource Management Act reform, which is opposed by Mr Dunne.

Ironically Mr Peters – always better behaved in government than on the campaign trail – has already indicated he's open to "reasonable" RMA changes.

ckeall@nbr.co.nz

Follow @ChrisKeall

* The next person on NZ First's list is Invercargill hair dresser Ria Bond, although there is speculation she will decline and Mataroa Paroro take her place. Mr Paroro is related by marriage to deputy leader Tracey Martin.