Criticism, disbelief, and a degree of mockery sums up the response to the newly launched Internet Mana Party. The deal has finally been done, and most commentators and politicians are critical to varying degrees. Yet, the impact of this new force on September’s election could be huge. Every political party from the Greens, to the Maori Party, to National could be negatively affected by this rising wildcard vehicle. As John Armstrong says today, in probably the most insightful commentary on the new party, ‘The new party could yet be the surprise package of the coming election - especially if the other centre-left parties continue to flounder’ – see:
Devil of a deal puts Harawira in control.
Armstrong – who seems to be an exception, in terms of his openness towards the new strategy – says that the deal is a major win for Hone Harawira and Mana. He also emphasises the short-term nature of the deal, which only runs until six weeks after the election – a fact that is seemingly missed by most commentators.
How well will the new party do?
One of the most critical commentaries on the alliance is today’s Dominion Post editorial,
Marriage unlikely to last, which predicts only very limited success: ‘The only question now is: will this political oddity, bred on the wrong side of the bed, have any appeal to the voters? Its best hope is to win about 2 per cent of the party vote’. (This editorial also somewhat misses the mark in seeing the Internet Mana Party as a ‘merger’).
Andrew Geddis also thinks the new party will struggle to achieve any sort of major electoral success – see his must-read blog post,
Power acquaints a man with strange bedfellows. Geddis has a good discussion about how the alliance will work, and whether it is ‘gaming the system’.
Peter O’Neill writes today that the party could shake up the election campaign: ‘Strange bedfellows they may be, but a party based on the internet brings to the voting booth new players - young people who otherwise wouldn't bother. And there are a lot of them out there, who will vote as much along anti-establishment lines as for any informed notion of policy. And if that happens, it's not necessarily a bad thing. It may shake up other parties to pay more attention to that sector, although they may have to go online to tell them about it’ – see:
A marriage made in ... ?
Note also that John Armstrong doesn’t see the new party as getting more than a few MPs: ‘But it is conceivable that a rejuvenated Mana might win two or three more of the Maori electorates with Harawira's Te Tai Tokerau. That would block the Internet Party from getting an MP off the list unless the party vote for the joint party were to top 2 to 3 per cent’.
The victims – other minor parties
The obvious potential loser from this new venture is the Green Party. If successful, the new party could take many votes away from the Greens’ target market – especially youth, leftwing voters, and those generally dissatisfied with ‘The Establishment’ or the major parties. For this general reason, other parties like New Zealand First could also suffer, potentially jeopardising their attempts to make the 5% MMP threshold.
But it’s the Maori Party that possibly has the most to lose if this party takes off and has a honeymoon period of four months. It could lead to Mana winning Te Ururoa Flavell’s seat of Waiariki, perhaps finishing off the Maori Party for good. Adam Bennett even reports today that ‘Labour has given some thought to pulling its punches in Te Tai Tokerau to give the alliance a better chance of bringing in additional left-block MPs’ – see:
Mana cites youth vote for link-up with Internet Party.
Not surprisingly, the Maori Party is therefore scathing about the partnership – see Radio NZ’s
Merger called slap in face for Maori. Of course the Maori Party’s attack may be blunted by their own cosying up to millionaire National Party supporters at the Exclusive Northern Club recently. Mana claims no policy compromise with their new relationship – something the Maori Party cannot reasonably claim after 5 years in government with National.
The leadership factor
Tomorrow’s announcement of the Internet Party’s leader will be a crucial step in determining whether the new formation is a game changer for the election or not. It is obvious that the chosen leader will be someone with a high profile and some sort of leftwing background. This can be seen from items such as TV3’s
Mana 'extremely happy' with Internet Party's chosen leader.
If the new leader really does live up to expectations then we might expect that the new party will do well in the next opinion polls. And if that’s the case, then it could end up impacting the overall election result and even National’s chances of governing after September 20.
Bryce Edwards
Wed, 28 May 2014