NZ POLITICS DAILY: In the 'death zone' but hogging headlines

Never before has political debate in this country been focused on parties with such low public support.

According to the most recent opinion poll published, the Act, Maori and Mana parties each have the support of 1.7%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively, yet they’re the political forces creating the most political debate this week.

Nearly all the minor parties are now in the ‘death zone’ of scoring well below the 5% threshold – although most now focus on winning electorate seats rather than the party vote.

Despite their low popularity, these minor parties are still potentially crucial for constructing coalition governments. Hence they remain politically relevant, and hence we’re also seeing Prime Minister John Key take a ‘relaxed’ line on it all – see: Key can work with Brash and Sharples. This could yet change as we get closer to the election. Because even if the Maori Party and Act do get a few seats in November, Act’s attacks make it more and more difficult for a National-Act-Maori Party coalition after the election. After all, the Maori party will come under enormous pressure from Mana and Labour and their supporters to rule out any coalition going into government with Act. For evidence of this, see the Horizon poll about Maori preferences for government: Horizon Poll: Maori post election government preferences. So while John Key says he will work with both Brash and Sharples the reality may be that his coalition partners won’t work with each other.

Key’s floundering response is a symptom of the bind he is in with his current and future coalition partners. He needs both on tap. Therefore he’s currently not wanting to engage at all in the new ‘race wars’. Yet, eventually Key will have to deal with Brash. At the moment he doesn’t have to because he’s not really leading the Act Party in Parliament at all. But after the election it will be led by Brash, and so as the election approaches Key is going to be forced to address the issue.

The other reason that the minor parties are receiving publicity far in excess of their public support is because, as Gordon Campbell points out in his column On Don Brash’s race gambit, they are all ‘seeking the oxygen of publicity to arrest their respective declines’. Campbell’s column is also worth reading because he deals with the prime minister’s very low key response to his coalition partner’s racial-based implosion.

Another thoughtful explanation for why Brash won’t be able to work the same poll magic on Act’s 2011 popularity that he did for National in 2005 is found on the rightwing Homepaddock blogpost, Leading Act where? - an account that boils down to the fact that although since 2005 Brash’s ‘message hasn’t changed, other things have’.

The extent to which Act’s message is out of sync with the electorate – or perhaps just the political beltway? – is evident from across the media and blogosphere today. Everyone from Debborah Coddington and Rodney Hide through to the Dominion Post and various academics have expressed their disapproval for the Act’s race-orientated advertisements. But even some of Act’s critics might be at least slightly alarmed to see the state’s Race Relations Commissioner enter the electoral fray and provide a warning to Act – see: Act warned over Maori radical’s ad. Similarly, it will be disconcerting to more than a few that the NZ Herald is using the controversy to announce in an editorial that there is No place for radicalism in NZ politics. Sue Bradford, for instance, is arguing the case for greater radicalism in dealing with environmental problems, and laments that the Green Party is going down the path of corporate greenwash and general market-based policies – see: Greed is good, as long as it’s green.

The media are interested in the fact that the Green Party has hit the 9% mark in the latest poll, and clearly the party is picking up votes of both the weakened Labour Party and New Zealand First – as I commented today on Morning Report (listen here). It shouldn’t be surprising that the Greens are picking up Labour votes – that’s what happened with the Alliance in the 1990s. It did particularly well when Labour was polling badly. If anything the Greens haven’t picked up as much as they should have. Given their shift towards the centre of the political spectrum and their very smart political positioning, they might have expected to be doing much better. It could be quite simply that the public has had enough of minor parties. Gone are the days – back in 1996 and 2002 – when the aggregate vote for the minor parties was nearly 40%. These days, all the minor parties seem to be struggling to remain relevant, and it’s their extreme desperation and weakness that is keeping them in the public eye.

Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content:

Act Party

Derek Cheng (NZH): Nicolson named as new ACT candidate

Derek Cheng (NZH): Maori ad threatens to divide Act

Elizabeth Puranam (TV3): Sharples, Brash battle it out in TV debate

NZPA: Brash denies ‘Maori bashing’ in debate

Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On Don Brash’s race gambit

Homepaddock: Leading Act where?

TVNZ: Act warned over Maori radical’s ad

Kiwipolitico: Dollar dollar bill y’all

Editorial (NZH): No place for radicalism in NZ politics