Northland: Third poll finds Peters neck-and-neck with National

A third poll has found a tight race in Northland – and Winston Peters has yet to dish the dirt he's rumoured to have on National about the seat (bearing in mind that not every teaser campaign by the NZ First leader ends in a bang).

A Colmar-Brunton poll of 500 for TVNZ's Q+A programme, taken March 3-6, finds:

• Winston Peters, NZF: 36%,
• Mark Osborne, Nat: 36%,
• Willow-Jean Prime, Lab: ,20%
• Joe Carr, Focus NZ: 5% and
• Other confirmed candidates: 5%.

That's close to a 3 News-Reid Research poll of 500 that found:

• Winston Peters, NZF: 35%,
• Mark Osborne, Nat: 30%,
• Willow-Jean Prime, Lab: 16% and
• Don’t Know/Won’t Vote: 19%..

Then there's the secret UMR poll jointly commissioned by Labour and NZ First, 

Colmar-Brunton also asked Northlanders how they would vote if Labour's Willow-Jean Prime pulled out of the March 28 byelection. Some 51% said they would vote for Peters, 37% for National's Mark Osborne.

Otago University pol sci lecturer Bryce Edwards says Labour leader Andrew Little must now choose between left-interest and self-interest.

A win for Mr Peters would cut National's majority a crucial vote and play havoc with its agenda. Reduced to a two-seat deficit, it would have to scramble harder to get its support partners on board with legislation.

The Maori Party is already disgruntled over employment law changes. UnitedFuture's MP Peter Dunne says he will look to re-negotiate his support deal in the event of Peters taking Northland. Dunne does not support RMA reform, and has just called for an inquiry into the our spy agencies (this is the same Peter Dunne whose swing vote saw the expanded GCSB Act pass but I digress).

On the other hand, a Labour-NZ first deal would harm Mr Little's "authentic," cut-the-crap image. And Mr Peters', who has allied with National at times in the past, could prove a fair-weather friend.

Lose-lose
"The latest TVNZ opinion poll results about the Northland by-election will add considerable pressure on Andrew Little and Labour," Dr Edwards says.

"They're under pressure to essentially pull their candidate, Jean-Willow Prime, to help Winston Peters defeat the National candidate. If Labour did this, it would be very contentious. And if they don't, it could lead to a situation whereby Labour is seen to help National retain the seat. So Mr Little and Labour are in a real lose-lose situation."

Mr Little has to work out what is in Labour's bigger interests: defeating the government in the short-term or winning in the longer-term, Edwards says.

"There is no doubt that helping defeat National in the by-election would weaken the current government, and would make it harder for it to push through right-wing reforms in Parliament this term. But, of course, a win by Winston Peters could end up hurting Labour in the longer term, especially at the next election. A win in 2015 could help NZ First become a stronger force to rival Labour in the race for anti-National votes in 2017."

At this stage, Mr Little is prevaricating on the issue, Dr Edwards says.

"That's probably all he can do. But it does make him look indecisive and perhaps slippery, which won't be good for building up his political brand. He's on much stronger ground with voters when he yells 'Cut the crap'."

The Sabin factor
A crucial factor is the degree of backlash National suffers from its failure (real or perceived) to reveal more about former MP Mike Sabin's legal situation sooner.

The 3 News poll indicated National could be vulnerable on this issue. It found: 71% said they should have been told of Sabin investigation, 20% no.

The question is: how deep does this sense of betrayal run? Or is it a minor annoyance that will fade when it comes down to ticking a ballot rather than answering a pollster? We do know that locals do not like to be taken for granted, or feel that they're being manipulated – which is how National came to lose the ultra-safe East Coast Bays to Social Credit's Gary Knapp in a 1980 byelection; a byelection always provides more of an opportunity to be toey and send a message than a general election.

Intriguingly, National's party vote holds up at 49% in the Colmar Brunton poll (see full results end of story). At the September election, the part got 48.76% of the list vote in Northland. 

Meantime, the prime minister's chief of staff, Wayne Eagleson, has moved to shut down OIA requests over Mr Sabin, at least until after March 28.

The 2014 result
National voters feeling betrayed over Mr Sabin, and strategic voting, will both have to play a huge roll on March 28 if Mr Peters is to win.

National's majority at September's election was overwhelming. At a time rumours of Mr Sabin's legal issues were already rife, and he had hardly set the world on fire with stumbling performances in Parliament, the National backbencher got 18,269 votes – more than the Labour (8969), Green (3639) and in fact all other candidates combined (including Labour and the Greens, opponents got 16,368 votes; NZ First did not stand a candidate. The party received 4546 list votes). 

How will those numbers look on March 28? The Sabin situation is a murky controversy, but no one exploits murk better better than wily old Winston.

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POSTSCRIPT: I was curious whether pollsters are asking Northland respondents whether they are on the General Roll or the Maori roll. Colmar Brunton says yes that question was asked.

I was also curious: can Northland voters on the Maori Roll hop across to the General Roll for the March 28 byelection?

Otago University law professor Andrew Geddis says: "No, they can’t. Once a person has chosen which roll they wish to be on, they can only change during the 'electoral option period' that follows each census. The next one is not until 2018."

* Under the weird mechanics of MMP, National would move from 59 seats in a 120 seat Parliament to 59 seats in 121 Parliament in the event of NZ First winning the Northland byelection.