No Obama visit but Biden flyby as a consolation prize

John Key's hopes for a New Zealand visit by US President Barack Obama may have come to nothing.

But now New Zealand gets a consolation prize: a stopover by Vice-President Joe Biden.

The 24-hour flyby will see Mr Biden arrive on Wednesday, July 20 "for a series of official engagements" and depart the next day.

In a brief statement, Prime Minister John Key said, “Vice President Biden’s visit will allow us to discuss ways we can work closer together on issues like economic and trade ties, as well as international peace and security matters.”

Mr Key says the situation in the South China Sea will also be on the agenda (he is urging all sides to respect a decision by the International Court at The Hague that China does not have historical sovereignty in the disputed territory. China says it will ignore the decision).

Aussie leg
Mr Biden will first visit Australia where his engagements reported so far have a personal tone.

While an official itinerary has yet to be published, ABC says Mr Biden will attend the AFL game between Carlton and West Coast at the MCG in Melbourne on Sunday. 

Mr Biden is also expected to visit Victoria's Comprehensive Cancer Centre. The fight against cancer became one of the vice-president's causes after his son Beau was afflicted with brain cancer. He died last year aged 46.

Official engagements will be a little problematic as the Lucky Country is between governments — something that could not have been anticipated when the trip was planned, presumably months ago.

The New Zealand leg of his trip will be an opportunity for the prime minister to urge a hurry up on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. The trade deal cannot come into force unless it is ratified by Congress then signed into law by President Obama. And unless it is ratified by the time President Obama leaves office in January, it will face a TPP-hostile Hillary Clinton or  Donald Trump. (Right now, the TPP's biggest enemy is its complexity – as recently noted by Niall Ferguson. It is taking forever to be "legalled"  (gone through by US lawyers) before it makes it to the floor of Congress. Experts think a vote will happen in December at the earliest).

Any TPP lobbying will help. But Mr Biden is not a power-behind-the-throne player in the manner of Dick Cheney during the Bush administration. The veep (73) was briefly talked up as a presidential candidate but he decided against running.

Full plate for Obama
President Obama himself has most recently been occupied with his endorsement of Mrs Clinton and hitting the campaign trail with the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Although Mrs Clinton is anti-TPP, her criticism has been measured. And a compromise deal (possibly to avoid embarrassment for the pro-TPP Mr Obama) saw the Democrats choose not to include any TPP bashing in their campaign platform.

And Mrs Clinton did not make any concessions on trade as she sought the endorsement of rival Bernie Sanders, which he delivered today; Mrs Clinton did yield ground on the death penalty, agreeing for the Democrat platform to include a section opposing it. Mrs Clinton is also adopting Mr Sanders' policy of free tertiary education for students who come from the poorest 15% of families.

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