New Nat leader will face immediate by-election challenge

Mt Albert 2014 list vote

• National: 14,359
• Labour: 10,823
• Greens: 8,005
• NZ First: 1512
• Conservative: 719
• Internet Mana: 603
• ACT: 356
• Maori Party: 178
• United Future: 57

Mt Albert 2014 candidate vote

• David Shearer (Labour):  20,970
• Melissa Lee (National): 10,314
• Jennette Elley (Green): 3152

(No other candidate above 600)

David Shearer is quitting his Mt Albert seat next week for a role as head of the UN's mission in South Sudan (subject to final confirmation by the Security Council following a recommendation by Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon). Assuming the decision is rubber-stamped, he'll take up the role in January.

That will trigger a by-election in the New Year, and an immediate challenge for National's new leader.

Mt Albert is like neighbouring Mt Roskill, only more so. National's list vote lead in 2014 was larger, and the seat has continued to gentrify. But the Green vote was also much stronger; more than double that of Phil Goff's old seat, opening a clearer opportunity for Labour to hold the seat through tactical voting after Mr Shearer and his large personal following depart.

There was obvious strategic voting by Green supporters in Mt Albert at the last election. About 8000 cast a list vote for their party, but only around 3000 voted for the Green candidate. Mr Shearer presumably bagged the 5000 tactical ballots.

That indicates Labour should win the by-election, assuming there is no Green candidate as the pair's new alliance again comes into play.

The question will be more be around the winning margin. John Key visited Mt Roskill seven times, but could not stop National candidate Parmjeet Parmar from slumping to 27.6% of the vote (against the 31.58% she received in 2014) as she received just 4652 votes.

It was a black eye for National, whose supporters should have been motivated by the fact a Mt Roskill win would have given their party a crucial extra MP in parliament. Instead, most stayed at home.

Will the new leader be able to inspire a better performance in Mt Albert, or will they take an early hit?

A loss by a worse margin than 2014 would be by no means catastrophic. Excuses over incumbency and tactical voting could be trotted out, as per Northland and Mt Roskill. But it would not be a good look. And Andrew Little — who has admittedly been shuffling very low — would get a bit more spring in his step (this morning the Labour leader cheekily suggested he would prefer an early general election to a by-election).

Political commentator Bryce Edwards sees a challenge from the right to new leader Bill English if he stumbles in the polls next year.

A poor Mt Albert performance could spur the first rumblings of discontent; a mischevious Judith Collins could reanimate her line from this week that National has lost touch with its base.

Mr Shearer's mission to war-torn South Sudan could start to look attractive by comparison.

POSTSCRIPT

Mt Roskill by-election 2016 (special votes still to be counted)

• Michael Wood (Labour): 11,170
• Parmjeet Parmar (National): 4652 (27.6%)
• Roshan Nauhria (People's Party): 709
• No Green or NZ First candidates

Total votes including minor candidates: 16,857

Mt Roskill 2014 candidate vote

• Phil Goff (Labour): 18,637
• Parmjeet Parmar (National): 10,546 (31.6%)
• Barry Coates (Green): 1682
• Mahesh Bindra: 786

Total votes including minor candidates: 33,933

Mt Roskill 2014 list vote

• National: 14,275
• Labour: 12,086
• Green: 3279
• NZ First: 1805
• Conservative: 1240