National steady or rising in 3 of 4 post-Collins resignation polls

Judith Collins resignation from cabinet seems to have helped National draw a line under the Dirty Politics controversy, rather than plunge the party's campaign into chaos.

A Fairfax-Ipsos poll released this morning has National up 3.4% to 54.2%, and Labour falling to 1.8% to 24.3% (although it has to be seen in the light of the Fairfax survey exaggerating National's support in 2011; while all polls over-stated support for the incumbent in 2011, Fairfax's poll had the biggest reality gap. Its final poll put National on 54.0%; National received 47.3% of the vote on election day).

A Herald Digipoll out this morning, also says National could govern alone. It has the party down 0.6 to 50.1% 

The Digipoll also has Labour failing to capitalise on Dirty Politics, with the party down 0.3% to 23.8%. 

A 3News-Reid Research poll released Wednesday had National up 1.4% to 46.4% and Labour down 0.5% to 25.9%. (up 1.4 percent compared to August 19-25 poll). Translated to election day, that would mean National would need the support of the Maori Party (not guaranteed to hold its three seats) or NZ First to form a government.

Wednesday's Roy Morgan poll had the most opposition-friendly outcome. It had National taking a three point knock to 45.0%.  However, the news is not all good for Labour, which slipped 1.5 to 26% while the Greens 4.5% to 16% — and giving Labour and the Greens a combined 42%.

The Herald Digipoll had both Key and Cunliffe rising.

Preferred PM
In the preferred PM stakes, today's Fairfax-Ipsos poll has John Key up to 2.6 points since August 27 to 57.6% and David Cunliffe falling half a point to 17.5%.

3News-Reid Research had Key up 3.7% to 45.1% and Cunliffe up 0.3% to 11.4%.

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Poll summaries via Curiablog

NZ Herald Digipoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Party Support

National 50.1% (-0.6%)
Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
Green 11.4% (nc)
NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

National 63
Labour 30
Green 14
Maori 3
United Future 1
ACT 1
Mana/Internet 4
NZ First 7
Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Fairfax Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Party Support

National 54.2% (+3.4%)
Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
United Future 0.1% (nc)
ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

National 70
Labour 31
Green 17
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 2
NZ First 0
Total 125
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

3News Reid Research

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Poll Method: Random Phone

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Party Support

National 46.4% (+1.4%)
Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

National 58
Labour 33
Green 16
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana/Internet 2
NZ First 7
Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.