National, Key take knock in post-Hager Digipoll

National and John Key have both taken knocks in the first post-Hager Herald Digipoll.

The fall is relative, however. The party could still govern alone if NZ First misses 5%, or with a single MP from a partner if Winston Peters' party does just tip over the MMP threshold.

The poll of 750 was taken August 14 to 20, capturing reaction to the release of Dirty Politics including the furore over Judith Collins releasing civil servant Simon Pleasants' name and contact details to Whale Oil, but not yesterday's kerfuffle over whether the PM knew about the rush-release of SIS documents under the Official Information Act to Cameron Slater.

It also took in the period of Labour's campaign launch an its new policy expanding free GP visits to include everyone under 13, pregnant women and over-65s.

And the Greens' campaign launch which included a $1 billion package to address child poverty, a promise to hike the top tax rate to 40%, and free public transport for students in off-peak hours (a policy perhaps aimed at shoring up youth support as Internet Mana pledges to wipe student loans).

It found:

Party vote

National 50 (down 4.9)
Labour 25.2 (down 1.3)
Greens 13.7 (up 3.8)
NZ First 4.3 (down 0.3)
Maori Party 0.7 (up 0.2)
Mana-Internet 2.1 (down 0.1)
ACT 0.6 (up 0.6)
United Future 0.4 (up 0.4)
Conservatives 2.6 (up 1.4)

Preferred Prime Minister

John Key Nation 64.8 (down 8.5)
David Cunliffe Labour 14.6 (up 4.1)
Winston Peters NZ First 5.1 (down 0.4)
Russel Norman 3.5 Greens (up 1.5)
David Shearer 1.5 Labour (down 0.7)
Helen Clark 1.4 former PM (up 0.9)

Seats in the house

National 64
Labour 32
Greens 18
NZ First 0
Internet Mana 3
Maori Party 1
ACT 1
United Future 1

The final Herald-Digipoll before the 2011 election put National on 50.9%. On election day, the party received 47.3% of the vote.