My 2014 predictions

Here’s my 20 political predictions for 2014:

Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014
The election will be held in October 2014
Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014
There will be two new Ministers before the election
At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote)
At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election
Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014
The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15
NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council
At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list
The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election
Len Brown will go
Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014
National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases
Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament
Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu
NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011
A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party
National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election
After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34%

Political commentator David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.

David Farrar
Fri, 03 Jan 2014