Mixed poll news for Nats - and a slip of the tongue for Shearer

New polls have mixed news for National.

A One-News Colmar Brunton survey echoes a Roy Morgan poll (below), showing a dip in support for the government as National hits a seven-year low. 

It gives the Labour-Green opposition enough support to form a minority government.

But a 3News Reid-Research poll has the government holding its lead as both main parties drop 2% but National remains on a robust 49%.

Both polls have bad news for John Key, who dips in the preferred Prime Minister stakes in both polls (both have Labour leader David Shearer unchanged).

Neither poll can be regarded as a referendum on the Labour-Greens power policy, released April 18 - as both only caught a day of reaction (3News-Reid Research surveyed 1000 over April 13-18; OneNews-Colmar Brunton 1000 over April 14-18).

The polls did come on the heels of controversy of the appointment of Ian Fletcher as GCSB director Ian Fletcher, and the Prime Minister's initial failure to recall a shoulder-tapping phone call.

Slip of the tongue
The Labour-Green electricity reform proposal has seen the pair on the front-foot overall.

But the momentum was undermined a little on Sunday night when Labour leader David Shearer - perhaps struggling to come up with a family-friendly version of the bon mot - told 3News that "John Key is just talking out his mouth" with this criticism of the Labour-Green policy.

"No s**t, Shearer," was the response from one exasperated leftie as Twitter lit up like a Christmas tree.

OneNews-Colmar Brunton: Party Support

National: 43.0% (-6.0%)
Labour: 36.0% (+3.0%)
Green: 13.0% (+2.0%)
Conservative: 2.0% (+1.1%)
Maori 1.0% (nc)
United Future 1.0% (+0.8%)
NZ First: 3.0% (-0.9%)
ACT: <1%
Mana: <1%

OneNews-Colmar Brunton: Projected Seats

National: 55
Labour: 46
Green: 16
ACT: 1
Maori: 3
United Future: 1
Mana: 1
NZ First: 0
Conservative: 0
Total: 123

Based on no change in electorate seats.
 

OneNews-Colmar Brunton: Coalition Options (via curiablog)

Centre right: National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
Centre left: Labour 46 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 63/123 – one more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
 

OneNews Colmar-Brunton: Preferred PM

John Key: 39% (-5.0%)
David Shearer: 15% (nc)

3News-Reid Research: Party Support

National: 49.4% (-2.0%)
Labour: 30.2% (-2.4%)
Green: 11.5% (+0.7%)
NZ First: 3.8% (+0.4%)
Conservative: 2.0% (+1.1%)
Mana: 1.0% (+1.0%)
Maori: 1.0%  (+0.6%)
ACT: 0.5% (+0.4%)
United Future: <1%
 

3News-Reid Research: Projected Seats

National: 63
Labour: 39
Green: 15
ACT: 1
Maori: 3
United Future: 1
Mana: 1
NZ First: 0
Total: 123

Based on no change in electorate seats.

3News-Reid Research: Projected Seats: Coalition Options

Centre right: National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than minimum 63 needed to govern
Centre left: Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

3News-Reid Research: Preferred PM

Key: 37.6% (-3.4%)
Shearer: 10.0% (nc)

Labour-Greens enough support to form minority govt - poll

Roy Morgan: Party Support

National:40.5% (-3.5%)
Labour: 35.5% (+1.0%)
Green: 13.5% (+0.5%)
NZ First: 5.0% (+2.0%)
Maori: 2.0% (-0.5%)
United Future: 0.5% (-0.5%)
ACT: 0.5% (nc)
Mana: 0.5% (nc)
Conservative: 1.5% (+0.5%)

Roy Morgan: Projected Seats*

National: 50
Labour: 43
Green: 17
ACT: 0
Maori: 3
United Future: 1
Mana: 1
NZ First: 6
Total: 121

* Based on no change in electorate seats for National's coalition partners the Maori Party and United Future, but National winning Epsom, currently held by ACT's sole MP. Under MMP, the party with the most votes does not get first option to attempt to form a government.

April 18: If an election were held today, Labour with minority party support could form a government, according to the latest Roy Morgan poll.

The poll has poignancy given Labour and the Greens' threat to regulate the electricity sector. The pair said the policy was not intended to rattle potential Mighty River investors. Regardless, it saw shares in listed power company Contact fall 3%, indicating possible investor jitters. However, it was also taken before the policy was released.

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a definite tightening between National (40.5%, down 3.5%) and Labour (35.5%, up 1%). This is the smallest gap between the two major parties since October 2008 — prior to John Key’s election as Prime Minister," pollster Gary Morgan says.

“Since John Key became leader of National in November 2006, the National vote has never dipped below 40.5%, and has not been lower since October 2006 (40%) when Don Brash was still the leader of National.

“Today’s result is a clear boost to Opposition Leader David Shearer and comes as National faces a number of challenges that appear to have dented its support — the axing of 140 jobs by the Department of Conservation, the ongoing Novopay Payroll Issues, the bungled handling of the Kim Dotcom ‘affair’ and serious breaches of privacy by both the Ministry of Education and the Earthquake Commission.”

The poll also followed controversy over Mr Key's shoulder-tapping phone call to Ian Fletcher over the GCSB director role, and his initial 

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 3.5pts to 116 with 51.5% (down 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 35.5% (up 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The poll was  conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors from April 1-14. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.