Lobby group EBSS says the minister's figures amount to playing jiggery-pokery.
EBSS chairman Ian Harrison talks about earthquake strengthening legislation on NBR Radio and on demand on MyNBR Radio.
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A lobby group says the evidence Building and Housing Minister Nick Smith finally produced to back his claim that earthquake strengthening legislation would save 330 lives over the next 100 years is based on spurious assumptions.
The lobby group, Evidence-based Seismic Strengthening (EBSS), had been trying since May to get this evidence under the Official Information Act (OIA).
It asked for the evidence because the 330 lives saved claim contradicted evidence already produced by the Ministry of Business (MBIE) that the legislation currently before Parliament would save only 24 lives in 100 years.
EBSS chairman Ian Harrison says the minister's figures amount to playing jiggery-pokery with statistics and that the minister should retract his estimate.
“It’s just not a legitimate way to calculate expected future deaths – (it’s) obviously contrived to generate a high number. The methodology just doesn’t make sense,” Mr Harrison says.
The number is based on nonsensical assumptions, he says.
For example, the calculation takes the 261 people killed in the 1931 earthquake in Napier and multiplies that by the current population and the expected future population increase over the next 100 years.
“The assumption there is that the building stock in Napier is as it was in 1930. Now that’s simply nonsense,” Mr Harrison says.
“Napier and Hastings weren’t rebuilt to replicate that building stock.”
Similarly, the calculations are assuming new buildings to house the increase in population in Napier over the next 100 years will be built to the same standards as 1930, which is equally nonsensical, Mr Harrison says.
They also assume another building of the same sub-standard quality as the CTV building will be rebuilt in Christchurch, he says
“It’s legally not possible. All buildings are built to the modern code.”
Fabricating a better case
Mr Harrison says the proposed seismic policy framework is expensive and damaging and the case for it was weakened by the small effect on life safety.
“So, the hunt was on for a number that would present a more compelling case, no matter how spurious the methodology.”
While Mr Smith has been using the 330 lives saved figure, the evidence he supplied was that 335 lives would be saved.
Mr Harrison says MBIE has attempted a cover-up.
EBSS’ OIA request was initially refused because MBIE said it would be a “contempt of the House of Representatives.”
Then MBIE said it needed more time.
Then, nearly three months later, MBIE gave EBSS a cabinet paper which simply stated the 335 lives saved figure with no supporting documentation.
And finally this month, EBSS received the information Mr Harrison is now commenting on directly from the Minister.
“It is clear that MBIE did have the document and we do not believe that MBIE forgot it existed or misunderstood the request,” Mr Harrison says.
Mr Smith’s explanation for the requested information not being supplied earlier was because “the information was contained in an email and emails were not part of the refined scope of that request.”
The OIA says information should be supplied within 20 working days.
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