Second disastrous poll piles on pressure; special provision for caucus-only leadership vote within three months of an election could tempt Robertson. UPDATE: Little cancels Tuesday morning appearances.
LATEST: Little has stepped down. Follow NBR's latest reporting here.
UPDATE/Aug 1: Andrew Little has told a Radio New Zealand reported at Wellington Airport that he won't resign today, The comments follow him cancelling scheduled media appearances on RNZ and breakfast TV.
The embattled Labour leader says he wants to concentrate on a caucus meeting, due to be held later this morning.
Former Labour Party president Mike Williams has told RNZ he expects Mr Little will resign today.
Despite his interview cancellations, RNZ caught up with Mr Little at Wellington Airport. The Labour leader repeated that he would not resign. It remains to be seen if he will be pushed.
Earlier/July 31: Andrew Little appears to have survived today, but faces a crucial meeting with colleagues on Tuesday morning.
Despite rumours he would quit, the Labour leader told RNZ he was determined to lead his party into the September 23 election.
However, it remains to be seen if his colleagues agree during a caucus meeting scheduled for tomorrow, which could potentially include a no-confidence vote. The rumour-mill says a Kelvin Davis-Jacinda Ardern ticket could emerge from the caucus
Potential rivals to Mr Little, such as Grant Robertson and Stuart Nash have to weigh the political benefit of letting the incumbent take the blame for a September 23 drubbing vs the rare chance to circumvent special interests by mounting a challenge now (under Labour Party rules, the election of a new leader is decided by 40% caucus, 40% party membership and 20% by the unions. But if a leadership vacancy arises in the three months before a general election a new leader is elected by a simple caucus vote).
The party hierarchy, meanwhile, will have to weigh in on the not inconsiderable practical and financial challenges of swapping out billboards and campaign materials, and reshooting a series of TV commercials and social media clips
Yesterday, a disastrous 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll was compounded by Mr Little sharing with media that he had discussed standing down with colleagues after a run of poor numbers.
Late today, a Newshub-Reid Research poll (below) was released with similar headline results to the Colmar Brunton survey: Labour at a historic low, National unable to form a government without NZ First support and Gareth Morgan's TOP doubling support.
Like Colmar-Brunton, which had Labour at its lowest point (24%) since it began political surveys 22 years ago, Reid had Labour at its lowest (24.1%) since it began political polling nearly a decade ago.
Another common theme to both polls: support for Gareth Morgan's The Opportunities Party doubling to 2%.
Reid's key point of difference was that it has NZ First (static in Colmar Brunton's poll) benefitting from Metiria Turei's benefit fraud admission rather than the Greens.
Newshub-Reid Research poll
Party Support
Projected Seats*
* Minimum 61 needed for majority. Overhang could lead to a Parliament of up to 125 seats.
Preferred PM
Leader Approval
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250
Poll Size: 1,000
Undecideds: Unknown
Dates: July 20-28, 2017
Client: Newshub
