Latest poll has Labour-Green bloc ahead of National

UPDATE / Feb 20: Hot on the heels of a One News-Colmar Brunton poll showing a 5% bounce for National, comes a Fairfax Media-Ipsos survey that shows the party dipping 1.3% to 44.9%

And where One News-Colmar Brunton has Labour down 2%, Fairfax-Ipsos has the party up 1.9 % (or 3.7% since August) to 36.3%.

Fairfax-Ipsos puts the Greens on 10.7% - meaning the combined Labour-Green bloc is ahead of National, but still short of a majority (remembering the party with the most votes does not get first option to form a government under MMP; any group of parties that thinks it can form a government can take its case to the Governor General). 

The message is black and white: support for National is either up, or down.

Meanwhile, the much-surveyed-about Hekia Parata seemed to have been put through the image consultancy mill before the latest round of Christchurch school closure announcements. The Education Minister was notably composed and humble compared to here previous appearances.

Party support

• National 44.9% (-1.3%)
• Labour 36.3% (+1.9%)
• Green 10.7% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 2.8% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.3% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.4%)
• Mana 1.4% (+0.8%)
• Conservative 1.6% (+0.2%)

Projected seats (via Curiablog)

• National 57
• Labour 46
• Green 13
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0

(Total 122. Based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom)

Coalition options (via Curiablog)

Center right – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
Center left – Labour 46 + Greens 13 + Mana 2 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Should Hekia Parata be removed from Education?

• Yes 60%
• No 22%
• Don’t Know 18%

The Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll surveyed 1000 between February 10 - 15.

National, Key up in post-reshuffle poll despite Parata backlash
Feb 18 The first One News Colmar Brunton poll finds a big majority think Prime Minister John Key should have dumped Education Minister Hekia Parata in the recent cabinet reshuffle - which saw Phil Heatley and Kate Wilkinson pushed out and high-flyers Nathan Guy, Simon Bridges and Nikki Kaye promoted.

But the sentiment has not dented Mr Key or his party's popularity, which both rose 5%.

National's party vote boost means if an election were hold today, it would have the option to govern without Maori Party support.

Party vote

• National 49.0% (+5.0%)
• Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (nc)
• United Future 1.0% (nc)
• Mana 1.0% (nc)
• NZ First 4.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.0% (-1.0%)

Projected seats (based on no change in electorate seats)

• National 62
• Labour 42
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0

Translated into an election night result, the projects would mean National could govern with a one-seat majority with the support of ACT and United Future (assuming both parties held their single electorate seat).

Preferred PM

• John Key 44% (+5.0%)
• David Shearer 15% (nc)
• Winston Peters 5% (-1%)

Decision to keep Hekia Parata as Minister of Education

• Right decision: 21%
• Wrong decision: 59%
• Unsure: 20%

Colmar Brunton's phone poll of 1000 eligible voters was carried out between February 9 and February 13.