Labour, Shearer take hit in latest poll

The latest Herald-Digipoll has National up slightly to 48.8%. That would translate to 60 seats - the bare minimum to govern alone. Assuming some degree of MMP overhang (the current Parliament has 121 MPs), National would still have to reach out to ACT or the newly independent Peter Dunne.

Labour support slumps to 30.9% - 5.5% below its March level, if still up on its November 2011 election total (27.4%; National got 47.3% of the party vote).

David Shearer's preferred prime minister rating dives 6.1% - a bigger drop than his party.

David Cunliffe is easily the most preferred Labour leader if Mr Shearer goes.

The poll finds majority support for Labour and Green calls for an inquiry into the GCSB, and two-thirds against the Sky City pokies-for-convention centre deal.

But as with the pair's single electricity buyer policy - which pollsters also rate popular - the policy win has failed to translate to party support, or a boost for Mr Shearer.

The poll also finds 59% do not believe Peter Dunne's denial over leaking the GCSB report.

Herald-DigiPoll, released June 26

Party Support

National 48.8% (+0.3%)
Labour 30.9% (-5.5%)
Green 10.5% (+1.5%)
NZ First 5.1% (+2.6%)
Maori 1.8% (+0.7%)
United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
Mana 0.5% (nc)
Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

National 60
Labour 38
Green 13
Maori 3
United Future 1
ACT 1
Mana 1
NZ First 6
Total 123
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 38 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/123
Preferred PM

Key 65.2% (+2.2%)
Shearer 12.4% (-6.1%)
Peters 6.4% (+2.4%)
Norman 3.6%

Labour Leadership successors if Shearer goes

David Cunliffe 31.8%
Grant Robertson 16.7%
Andrew Little 13.5%
Other 11.0%
Unsure 27.0%

Inquiry into GCSB

Agree 52.1%
Disagree 36.9%
Don’t Know 11.0%

Peter Dunne

22% believe he did not leak GCSB report
59% do not believe his denial

Methodology

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.9%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 661 had a party preference

Dates: 12 to 23 June 2013

- Poll summary courtesy Curia Blog