Labour and National neck and neck in Newshub-Reid poll
PLUS: How English could still be at risk, even with his party polling 44%.
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Hawke’s Bay
Labour and National are neck and neck in first Newshub-Reid Research post-election poll – while NZ First support has halved (see charts below).
Commentator Matthew Hooton earlier predicted a post-election fall for NZ First and the Greens as lead coalition party Labour hogged the limelight – and not to read too much into any sub-5% ratings at this point.
Mr Hooton also says National leader Bill English’s leadership is still in trouble despite National continuing to poll as the most popular party across all surveys, and his personal ratings remaining relatively buoyant.
His logic is that after the super-leak incident (further inflamed this week) and National successfully gunning for his Northland seat, Winston Peters will never ally with a party led by Mr English – or indeed Steven Joyce or Paula Bennett. National will need a generational change in leadership if it wants a shot with the perennial king-maker (there's more on National MPs' manoeuvring and sudden obsession with leadership in Mr Hooton's latest instalment of his Weekly Hit, here).
Based on the Newshub-Reid poll, Labour could form a government with the Greens if an election were held today.
In reality, the next election is the best part of three years away. Winston Peters has so far been relatively subdued in government, yielding to Labour's more modest immigration cuts, and dropping his party's demand to eliminate the Maori seats.
However, the NZ First leader will have the opportunity to improve his and his party's standing in June, when the first baby arrives and he takes the reins as acting prime minister for six weeks.
Chris Keall
Thu, 01 Feb 2018
Thu, 01 Feb 2018
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Labour and National neck and neck in Newshub-Reid poll
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