Kasich’s strong showing in New Hampshire offers sliver of hope for TPP

The New Hampshire primary offered a sliver of hope for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement – which needs US ratification to come into force.

In the Republican field, the pro-TPP Ohio Governor John Kasich (16%) surprised pundits by finishing a strong second behind Donald Trump (35%).

TPP boosters can now dare to dream that Governor Kasich can build on this momentum and become the establishment candidate, replacing Senator Marco Rubio (whose breathtakingly awful New Hamsphire debate performance saw him tumble to fifth). And the TPP does need a new champion on the Republican side since Senator Rubio has lately caught the protectionist fever that’s been going around and now says he’s unsure if he would vote or the trade deal.

Unlike lead Republican candidates Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz (and Hillary Clinton and the surging Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side), Governor Kasich is solidly behind the TPP – even if he called it the PTT.

The bad news (for the pro-TPP camp): Governor Kasich really, really needs to build on that New Hampshire momentum.  Nationwide polls show him at around 5%, and he also barely registers in states holding primaries over the next month or so. The next round of polls will show if he benefits from Senator Rubio’s self-combustion and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s withdrawal.

As NBR has previously canvassed, the February 4 TPP signing in Auckland was merely a photo-op. The trade deal needs ratification from lawmakers in countries representing 85% of signatories’ total GDP to come into force. In practical terms, that means the US must sign, or the TPP dies.

Trade expert Stephen Jacobi agrees with US pundits who say the TPP won’t get before the US House of Representatives and Senate until December (the so-called lameduck session post-election and pre-President Obama’s departure in January) at the earliest given the four-step, 180 working day-plus path to getting the deal in front of American lawmakers. The Republican-dominated Congress approved crucial trade authority legislation for the White House to fast track negotiations, but lately – with one eye on Mr Trump and Senator Cruz’s runaway poll numbers – key Republicans have been wavering. By some counts, the TPP no longer has a majority. That means even if the Obama White House can some squeeze it in last-minute, it will go down in flames.

If Congress does ratify the TPP, its decision can be vetoed by the President. If still in power, President Obama will sign it into law. The leading Republican and Democrat contenders to succeed him would bin it. Congress can in turn over-ride a Presidential veto, but only with a two-thirds super-majority which is rarely mustered.