'It’s cool to say you’re opposed to trade' — Key on US backlash against TPP

Prime Minister John Key says he's not worried about the anti-TPP rhetoric from the main US presidential candidates.

"Well, I’m just saying to you that on the campaign trail, and when you’re in the hustings in middle America, which has been a bit hollowed out, it’s a cool thing to say that you’re opposed to trade," Mr Key said on Q+A.

The PM said there was a very good chance President Obama could pass it. President Obama will have a shot at getting the TransPacific Partnership through Congress before the November election, and another during the so-called "lame duck" session in December before he (and any voted-out Congressmen) formally leave office in January.

The TPP must negotiate a multi-step process of up to 285 working days* before it even gets to Congress. And this is at time when President Obama appears to be focussing his resources on what promises to be a hard-fought fight to replace the vacant Supreme Court slot.

Once it gets there (which most experts think will not be until December), the trade deal muster majority support from both houses of Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate). Some pundits say the TPP has now lost majority support in Congress as Republicans members eye the runaway success of Donald Trump's campaign, which has been built around protectionism -- including a critique of what he calls the "horrible" TPP that positioned him to the left of Democrat rivals Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders.

If Congresses ratifies the TPP, the President can sign the ratification into law, or veto it. A veto can only be over-ridden by a two-thirds majority in Congress — a benchmark that is rarely attained.

Second-placed Republican contender Senator Ted Cruz has also campaigned against trade deals, saying the TPP will undermine US sovereignty. And the two remaining Democrats, Ms Clinton and Senator Sanders, both say it will cost American jobs.

Some pundits, like trade expert Stephen Jacobi, follow a similar line. The candidates are playing campaign theatrics. After the election, the winner will tack back to a more orthodox position (as Bill Clinton did, ultimately supporting the North American Free Trade Agreement he once railed against).

Asked if we should just relax, because the candidates are just pretending, Mr Key replied, "Well, I just think a) there’s a very good chance that President Obama will pass it; secondly, the main negotiator for the United States is Mike Froman, and I had lengthy discussions with Mike  about whether they thought they had the numbers buttoned down to pass it, and he was absolutely confident they do, and I’ve had discussions with him about the current political landscape, and he’s confident it’ll pass.”

The TPP requires ratification by countries representing 85% of the original signatories to come into effect. The two countries that can single-handedly prevent the 85% threshold being reached are Japan (where ratification is expected) and the US.

* To channel a Washington Post summary: The first steps begin when the White House formally sends Congress a notice of intent to sign the agreement, which kicks off a 90-day waiting period [this happened in the first week of November, 2015]. Congress gets to spend the first 30 days of that time privately reviewing the documents and consulting with the administration.

Next comes the public phase. The full trade deal will be open for anyone to review for 60 days allowing interest groups to provide feedback. This window will provide critical insight into how much popular support the deal may receive. A poor reception during the public phase could make it difficult for Obama to rally support when it comes time for Congress to vote.

The next step will be for the US International Trade Commission to conduct a full economic review of the deal. The agency has up to 105 days to complete that work but the process could take much less time.

Once the implementing bill is introduced in the House and the Senate, Congress has a maximum of 90 days to approve or disapprove the trade deal.

TPP boosters hope the Obama White House can accelerate this process to the maximum degree possible, but the norm is for a final-term president to have difficulty pushing through his agenda in his final few months.