iPredict sees Maori Party wipeout — causing complications for National

For the first time, the combined wisdom of iPredict’s 7000 registered traders is that the Maori Party will leave parliament after the election on September 20, with its expected party vote dwindling below 1%, a big slump in its chances of winning Wairariki and a new high of 57% probability that it will win no electorate seats. 

In the Maori electorates, Mana now has an 85% probability of winning at least one seat (up from 80% last week) and its expected electorate representation is 1.0 electorate MPs, up from 0.98 MPs.  

Mana’s probability of winning Te Tai Tokerau is up to 85% (from 79% last week) but its chance of winning Waiariki is down to 25% (from 33% last week and 40% the week before).  Maori Party Leader Te Ururoa Flavell now has just a 45% probability of winning the seat, down from 57% last week.  The probability the Maori Party will retain Tariana Turia’s Te Tai Hauauru electorate is now down to 11%, from 13% last week and 17% the week before, with Labour favoured to win with 89% probability, up from 85% last week and 80% the week before.

The Greens and NZ First continue not to be expected to win electorate seats.

The combined Labour/Green vote has improved over the last week and the Conservative Party has also gained ground, apparently at the expense of NZ First.  Nevertheless, NZ First is still expected to hold the balance of power and decide whether National or Labour will lead the next government.  The market is predicting it will opt for the former. 

Of major parties, National is expected to win 44.1% of the party vote (steady compared with last week).  Labour is steady on 28.6% and the Green Party is up to 12.1%, from 11.5% last week and 10.3% the week before.

Of smaller parties, NZ First’s expected party vote is down to 5.2%, from 6.3% last week and 6.1% the week before.

The Conservative Party’s forecast party vote has recovered to 4.0% from 3.4% last week and 3.9% the week before, but is still short of the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation unless it wins an electorate seat. Act is steady on 2.1% while UnitedFuture is down to 0.4% (from 0.5% last week). 

The Internet Mana alliance is expected to win 2.1% (steady), the Maori Party 0.9% (steeady), and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.3% (up from 0.2%).

Based iPredict's  party-vote and electorate forecasts, Parliament would consist of: National 55 MPs (steady compared with last week), Labour 36 MPs (up from 35), the Greens 15 MPs (up from 14), NZ First 7 MPs (down from 8), Act 3 MPs (steady), Internet-Mana 3 MPs (steady) and UnitedFuture 1 MP (steady).  Assuming the Maori Party did not win Waiariki, it would no MPs (down from 1).  Parliament would have 120 MPs and a government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

Under this scenario, National, Act and UnitedFuture would have only 59 seats and could not govern.  National could govern with the support the NZ First party with whom it would hold 62 seats.  However, Labour would also be able to form a government with Labour, Greens, Internet-Mana and NZ First, with 61 seats.  NZ First would therefore hold the balance of power and be in a position to choose whether New Zealand had a National or Labour government.

Were the Maori Party to win Waiariki but the Conservative Party to miss out on East Coast Bays, there would be a one-seat overhang with all other parties having the same seat forecasts as above.  National, Act, United Future and the Maori Party would hold a combined 60 seats and could not form a government but nor could any Labour-led combination without NZ First, which would have the balance of power.

Given speculation National may negotiate with the Conservative Party over an electorate accommodation, iPredict has also projected a scenario based on the market’s party vote and electorate forecasts, but with the addition of the Conservative Party winning an electorate.  Under that scenario, Parliament would consist of: National 53 MPs, Labour 35 MPs, Greens 15 MPs, NZ First 6 MPs, Conservatives 5 MPs, Act 3 MPs, Internet Mana 3 MPs and UnitedFuture 1 MP.  Parliament would have 121 MPs and a government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and support.  National would be able to govern with the support of the Act, Conservative and UnitedFuture parties, who together would hold 62 seats.

In any case, however, iPredict’s bundle of stocks forecasting NZ First’s decision-making should it hold the balance of power indicates Mr Peters would support a National-led Government.  There is a 56% probability Mr Peters would support a National-led government (up from 50% last week) and a 3% probability he would give confidence and supply to neither National nor Labour (down from 6%) which would favour the larger bloc which the market indicates would be National-led.  There is a 39% probability Mr Peters would support a Labour-led Government, down from 43% probability last week.

Overall, National now has an 80% probability of leading the next government, down from 81% last week.