'Incredibly divisive' if Cunliffe returns as leader — Shearer

Former Labour leader David Shearer is still mulling whether to have another shot at the big chair.

But he's already formed an opinion on his successor.

It will be “incredibly divisive” for the Labour caucus if David Cunliffe returns to the role of leader, he told TV3's The Nation.

Shearer described Labour’s drop in the polls under David Cunliffe’s leadership as “catastrophic”.

The Mt Albert MP said his family was against him making a leadership bid.

Watch the interview here.

What do you think? Is Andrew Little a serious contender for the Labour leadership? Click here to vote in our subscriber-only business pulse poll.

RAW DATA: The Nation transcript: Lisa Owen interviews Labour MP David Shearer

Lisa Owen: While that's just one interesting contest to watch over the next few days, the other is Labour's leadership race, which Andrew Little entered this past week. We'll talk to him shortly, but another MP widely tipped to throw his hat in the ring before nominations close on Tuesday is David Shearer, who is with me in the studio this morning. Good morning, Mr Shearer.

David Shearer: Morning, Lisa.

Just very quickly, Jeffrey Laurenti there is saying that Spain's a slam dunk for the Security Council and then it will come down to a race between Turkey and New Zealand. You've been over to the UN recently. What's your take? What are our chances?

I went over as part of a bipartisan approach to the UN. I don't think it's quite as he portrays, but what I do think is New Zealand has done a very good job. We've done as best as we possibly could have in terms of getting our name out there and having a good chance.

Are we in or out, do you think?

I bet we're in. I'm not sure who it is. I suspect it might be Turkey rather than Spain that that'll be in with us. I don't want to call it too much, because you kind of get those wobbles that we might not do it, but I'm happy.

You're betting we are, so speaking of races, the leadership race — are you in, or are you out?

Well, I'll make an announcement in my own time, and it won't be today, but certainly I will make an announcement one way or the other.

What's delaying your decision?

Oh, I just want to think about it. I want to consult. Look, the most well-known saying in politics is 'why not me?' Three words, and for me it's not just about 'why not me'; it's about 'what can I do if I did actually stand?' And you think about winning, but the second thing, and the most important thing, is 'what can I do in order to change Labour and to make sure that it goes in the right direction?' And if I can't do that, then I don't believe I should be in the race.

Do the family think it's a good idea?

Overall, no, because they saw me in the two years, or less than two years, that I was the leader before. It's incredibly stressful. It takes an enormous amount of time. Ask any opposition leader what it's like. It is the worst job in politics, possibly the worst job I've had in my life. It's satisfying on the one side, but it's also incredibly, incredibly difficult.

You said, then, that if you can't change Labour, then don't bother taking on the leadership, as such, so can you? And how?

Well, there's two questions that we need to be asking ourselves — who didn't vote for us, and why didn't they? And if we can't answer that, or refuse to answer that, then we actually shouldn't be going down this track. And if you look at that and you look at the progression of what has happened over time, over the last three or four elections — we haven't seen the results of this one, but almost for sure as well — it's that the middle of New Zealand has left us. And if you look at, for example, one group, white blokes, they have not stayed with Labour. They have gone somewhere else, and it's great that we've got the loyalty of Pasifika and Maori and many of those others, but if we don't have that big group...

Andrew Little said you scared people off with capital gains tax, with the Super age and electricity reforms. Do you agree with that, then?

I think some of those policies were not understood properly, but the real problem was that people weren't listening, and if people are not listening, you can have as many policies as you like; it's simply not going to work. So there's an issue around policies and how we package it, but there's also an issue around the way that brand Labour is being portrayed, and it's not being portrayed as the fair, aspirational party that it has been in the past. It's seen negatively by people.

If people weren't listening to Labour, was that because they weren't listening to David Cunliffe?

In part, it's the leadership, for sure. When I stood down, we were polling at 34, and we ended up on 25 in the election. That was in the space of 12 months. That is a catastrophic drop, and David's got to ask himself whether he can turn that around and take us back up to 40%. That's what he's gotta ask himself.

He is in the running, and he wants it, so what happens inside caucus if he does get it, the leadership, again? What do you think is gonna happen?

I think it will be incredibly divisive. Certainly for myself, you work for a party and you stand for a party and the value that underpins it, and then you have a leader that you don't necessarily have confidence in, and for me, it was an enormous tear inside myself — 'how do I march through the day?' And I think that was the same for many other people.

So would it lead to a revolt within caucus?

I think if that comes up, we've got a real problem. We've set up the rules to give the party a real say and obviously the affiliated unions a real say in who becomes the leader, but at the same time, that leader has to have the confidence of the people that work immediately to them, which are the other MPs, and if those MPs, and particularly some of the senior ones like Grant Robertson and David Parker, don't have confidence in, say, David Cunliffe, then you've got a serious issue on your hands.

All right, thank you for joining me this morning. That's David Shearer.