Idea Britain cannot thrive outside EU is nonsense: expat Kiwi 'leave' campaigner

Former NZ Young Nats president Shane Frith who worked on the Leave Campaign and is based in London says people who don’t want to accept the results of the vote are ‘in the first stage of grief. They’re in denial.’

There is no chance of Parliament voting against the referendum to vote to stay in despite a Labour MP calling to do so, he says.

“It shows the mind set of some individuals, who think that the will of the people should just be ignored.”

Speaking to Greg Boyed on TV One’s Q+A programme, he says “It was not the best example of shining democracy. There were things done on both sides that I thought were appalling”.

“On day one when Britain is fully out, essentially what will happen is existing British laws and existing British trade agreements will remain static. Britain can then start to negotiate new ones. And interestingly enough, I’ve seen that there’s already suggestions of free trade agreements with the likes of New Zealand, and in fact a suggestion that Britain join the Trans-Pacific Partnership. So anything’s possible at this point in time,” he says.

“New Zealand as a country of 4.3 million people does quite nicely outside of the EU. The idea that Britain cannot survive or thrive outside of the EU is nonsense.”

Today, around 44% of Britain's exports go to the European Union.

On NBR Radio, NZ Institute of Economic Research deputy chief executive John Ballingall said the two-year process of negotiating Britain's withdrawal, and new trading terms, would be tricky.

"Put yourself in the EU's shoes. One of the key members of your club has decided to bugger off and is now going to come back and knock on the door and say, 'Aw, can we come back in just for the bits we like and not have the bits you don't like?' If I were in the EU negotiating chair, I'm not sure I'd be overly welcoming to that," he said.

"The EU won't cut off its nose to spite its face but I don't think we can expect them to make it overly easy for the UK to negotiate a trade agreement that works for both sides. I don't think the UK is going to get access to the free [EU] market without accepting the free movement of people."

Mr Ballingall says most modelling points to a 3% to 5% contraction in GDP by 2018.

As for the idea of the UK joining the TPP?

The TPP can't come into force until it is ratified by countries representing 80% of the GDP of original signatories. In practical terms, that means the US Congress must green-light the controversial trade pact and the President sign it into law. However, the trade deal might not make it to Congress until after either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton (both of whom are campaigning on protectionist platforms) is in power — so there may well never be a TPP for the UK to join.

Congress did pass enabling legislation to help speed TPP negotiations, but became increasingly hostile to trade during the primary campaign as nearly Mr Trump rode a protectionist wave to claim the Republican nomination. If Congress does still ratify the TPP, the new president will have the power of veto.