Greens crash below 5%

Preferred PM

• Jacinda Ardern: 30% (+23)
• Bill English: 30% (+2)
• Winston Peters: 7% (-3)

Conducted Aug 12 - 16 with 1007 eligible voters. Undecideds down 7 points to 13% with 883 stating a party preference. Margin-of-error: +/- 3.1%.
 

Green Party support plummets below the 5% MMP threshold in a new 1News-Colmar Brunton poll.

That would mean no seats in Parliament, absent of winning an electorate.

Pollster David Farrar says the situation could be even worse for the party than it appears, as historically Colmar-Brunton has overestimated Green support by 0.7% compared to election-day results.

However, commentator Matthew Hooton says the party has probably bottomed out and will likely scape past 5% on September 23.

If it doesn't, Labour won't want to see 3% or 4% of the centre-left vote wasted. Mr Hooton moots the possibility that the party might stand down Grant Robertson in Wellington Central, which would give Green leader James Shaw a realistic chance of taking the seat.

Elsewhere, the Colmar Brunton poll has similar results to the recent Newshub-Reid Research and UMR surveys — only amplified as it was taken entirely after Meteria Turei resigned as co-leader, just hours after refusing to answer an RNZ question based on evidence she received "significant support" from her daughter's high-profile grandmother during her period of self-confessed beneficiary fraud.

Politics Daily producer Bryce Edwards says the Greens have faced a "perfect storm," with the Turei controversy coinciding with "Jacindamania" around Labour's new leader.

Source: RNZ

Same old, same old
But despite the dramatic shakeup on the centre-left, and Labour at a 10-year high and National at a four-year low, the overall situation is status quo.

As with other polls over the past few months, it leaves NZ First as king – or queen – maker.

On Colmar-Brunton's numbers, a National and its allies would have 61 seats (National 57 + Maori Party 2 + ACT 1 + United Future = 61) in a 122-seat MMP Parliament.

However, a recent poll had Mr Dunne in trouble in Ohariu. If he loses, and overhang is reduced, the size of Parliament would shrink to 121, opening the way for possible Labour-NZ First-Maori Party government on tonight's result.

Most pundits say the Greens being out of the picture, or at least a less influential presence, will make it more likely Winston Peters will plump for Labour. However, it will still depend in large part on what the two main parties offer him after September 23.

READ ALSO: Rob Hosking - Poll shock for Greens, wake up for National