Greenhouse gas emissions to fall in 2015

Greenhouse gas emissions, blamed for global warming, are heading downward, a new report says.

Figures published in Nature, a science journal, show man-made emissions “nearly stalled” at 37 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) last year and are on track to stabilise or drop this year.

This drop in emissions is a turnaround from more than 2% growth seen on average for the previous decade.

It also comes at a time of global economic expansion, compared with the previous emissions drop that occurred during the global financial crisis.

The figures from the Global Carbon Project are being released as 195 countries are attending the UN climate talks in Paris, known as COP21.

Their aim is to cut emissions enough to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.

China's emissions fall
Local experts, surveyed by the Science Media Centre, say the biggest contributor to the drop may be China.

Professor Martin Manning, of Victoria University’s Climate Change Research Institute, says the data show China’s 2015 carbon emissions will not only be less than 2014 but that the rate of decrease is faster than the European Union or the US.

This compares with earlier fears that China’s emissions peak may not have occurred until 2030.

"Increases in CO2 emissions are seen for India and many other countries but global emissions are now expected to decrease by about 0.6% in 2015,” he says.

“This is a very significant move in the right direction for dealing with climate change, although the extent to which it will be maintained is still not clear.

“Another recent study showed that China’s emissions had been overestimated previously and, while that is now being taken into account, some significant uncertainties still remain in these numbers.”

Fossil fuel efficiency
The shift is attributed to rising efficiency in the way fossil fuels are used and the expansion of renewables such as wind and solar, which have seen EU greenhouse gas emissions fall 6%.

The news gives hope that global warming could be controlled without huge economic upheavals and may counter some of the more apocalyptic climate warnings.

The world emits the equivalent of 46 billion tonnes of CO2 a year when other greenhouse gases, such as methane, are included.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said this must be brought below 20 billion tonnes to keep global warming at an acceptable limit by 2050. About 15 billion tonnes of this would be CO2 with the rest comprising other greenhouse gases.

The Global Carbon Project is a consortium of 70 scientists from leading climate research centres around the world.

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