The global tourism industry clawed back in the last quarter of 2009 and is poised to rebound, according to the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).Combined with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) prediction of a clear return to economic growth this
The global tourism industry clawed back in the last quarter of 2009 and is poised to rebound, according to the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).
Combined with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) prediction of a clear return to economic growth this year, the global upturn indicated a possible 3% to 4% growth rate in international arrivals for 2010, the UNWTO said in a statement.
Africa led the growth trend, followed by Asia and the Pacific, which showed “extraordinary rebound”. Growth turned positive for both regions in the second half of 2009.
Between January and June 2009, arrivals in the Asia Pacific region dropped 7%, but recorded 3% growth for the second half of the year.
This compares to Europe, where destinations in central, eastern and northern Europe were affected badly and arrivals dropped 10% in the first half of the year and 6% overall.
International arrivals in the Americas dropped 5%, although the Caribbean saw growth in the last four months of 2009, while in the Middle East arrivals dropped 6% overall (with again, a positive second half).
Arrivals in Africa, a “robust performer” grew 5% overall, with sub-Sahara performing best.
A total of 880 million people travelled worldwide in 2009 for business, leisure and other reasons, which represents a 4% decline, but a 2% rise during the last quarter of the year.
The organisation’s secretary-general Taleb Rifai said the A(H1N1) pandemic exacerbated the effects of the global economic crisis on global tourism.
“However, the results of recent months suggest that recovery is underway and even somewhat earlier and at a stronger pace than initially expected.”
Domestic tourism either fared better or grew in several countries during 2009, including China, Brazil and Spain, partially offsetting the decline in international tourism.
While the UNWTO has called 2010 “a year of transformation”, there were several risks to improved prospects including unemployment, fragile economic growth in major source markets (especially Europe and the US), stimulus measures phasing out, volatile oil prices, a lingering threat of the influenza A (H1N1), challenging security threats for travellers and the slow recovery of revenues and yields (compared to travel volumes).
“Many countries were quick in reacting to the crisis and actively implemented measures to mitigate its impact and stimulate recovery. Although we expect growth to return in 2010, a premature withdrawal of these stimulus measures and the temptation to impose extra taxes may jeopardize the pace of rebound in tourism.”
Mr Rifai said tourism was a primary vehicle for job creation and transformation to a green economy, but serious global policies were needed that supported tourism.
