Fragile states and terrorism

Georgetown University in Washington DC is a venerable, esteemed and well-funded university famous for teaching foreign-service policy and having an alumni of world leaders, diplomats and influencers from many countries.

Georgetown also hosts an annual Leadership Seminar, an intense eight days of exposure to the best thinkers they can assemble. Some years ago, when I was chairing Vector out of its post-CBD failure problems and the Auckland District Health Board through the construction of Auckland City Hospital, I was lucky enough to be invited to attend.

A reunion provided the opportunity to be with a group I don’t get exposed to here, plus the chance to discuss big global issues that never get past the shallow media soundbites and throwaway one-liners so beloved by our current leader.

The reunion’s theme, Fragile States and Terrorism, was timely. Madeleine Albright opened the debate with an acerbic address on what she saw as the appalling response to the Syrian refugee crisis, noting her own history as a refugee. Her world view was Euro-centric plus the Middle East and the fact that China, Asia, the Pacific and South America hardly rated a mention was worrying, especially as I wanted some perspective on the TPP, which not only didn’t figure all that highly but was not even known to many attendees.

Poverty reduction
Professor Steven Radelet’s address on the dramatic advances in poverty reduction and health gains by developing nations in the past 20 years should be compulsory reading everywhere. This positive set of statistics belies the negative stuff in the sea of celebrity and calamity that constitutes news coverage these days.

Experts spoke on such troubled countries as Yemen, the only poor country on the Arab peninsular and which is dealing with aerial attacks from neighbouring Saudi Arabia using US weapons.

One speaker outlined seven indicators of a fragile state that could be on its way to becoming a failed state. Some of these apply to a number of our tiny Pacific neighbours, especially those that are simply drowning. Fortunately, during this lecture, the All Blacks won the Rugby World Cup and I was able to announce New Zealand was no longer a fragile state.

Ambassador Ibriham Coulibaly, of Mali, recounted the unique way government leaders change there, albeit less regularly than in Australia. He had gone from 32 months as minister of finance to 42 months in prison as a result of a coup, only to be returned to his former position following another coup.

Both were linked to the troubles in Libya where America’s wish to remove dictators without a follow-up plan was following a similar route to what happened in Iraq and Syria.

A knowledgeable Englishman spoke on the world’s third largest industry, corruption, and urged his audience to tell their politicians to implement existing rules rather than swan off to yet another conference on the subject.

Finally, my colleague from 2004, Nassah Judeh, now the deputy prime minister of Jordan and an ardent All Black supporter, gave an inspirational address on the effect of the Syrian train wreck on his small country. It is nearly overrun by refugees and the two-state solution to Israel-Palestine is the only way out of that mess. Rarely does one hear an informed opinion on this problem instead of bitter rhetoric from both sides.

So will the world be safer? Given the standard of the debate for the Republican leadership, one would need to be a hopeless optimist to believe the US will lead us out of trouble. Fortunately, many thoughtful leaders around the world can balance this. Let’s hope our leaders are up to the task of acting as an intermediary between the great powers of China, US and an emerging Russia – but it will take more than golf.

Wayne Brown has an engineering degree and is a fellow of the Institute of Professional Engineers and a former Far North Mayor

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