Foreign Affairs Scope: US and Russia meet at UN

Russian military build-up in Syria continues as world leaders gather at the UN General Assembly. US and Russian leaders verbally sparred In New York over humanitarian, democratic and military responsibilities, however they failed to reconcile significant differences.

The Syrian regime of President Bashar al Assad will likely utilise the new Russian military equipment to defend its core territory. This might facilitate the rumoured power transition. Russia also hopes Mr al Assad’s ethnic Alawite support zone in western Syria will break away from the larger state.

Should this happen, Russia will be positioned as the power patron to the new statelet, reinforcing Moscow’s goal of forcing the US into dialogue. Russian troops have also been observed setting up surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in Syria, even though the Islamic State possesses no aircraft. This new SAM bubble supports Moscow’s wider goals of compelling the US into discussion.

Syria however cannot be divorced from the Ukraine’s situation, where for almost 72 hours no shelling has occurred in the breakaway regions of either Donetsk or Luhansk. Moscow can ratchet up tension in the region if it doesn’t think Kiev is supplying political concessions. The present quiet suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin is getting his way.

But the Ukraine conflict has been expensive for Russia, costing almost $US2 billion in military expenditure. The Russian-backed separatists also don’t help Moscow’s international image. The Syrian build-up is both a distraction from Ukraine and a play for greater concessions in Ukraine from Western powers.

The Russian economy is struggling from painful financial sanctions, low global energy prices and the net loss of an estimated 700,000 people each year due to natural causes. Russia’s current geopolitics has an air of desperation, but Mr Putin may well succeed if the international community counters his actions too slowly.

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