Final vote count at 2pm today: projections say National could lose two seats

The Electoral Commission confirms it will release the final result of the election, including special votes at 2pm today [UPDATE: Results have now been posted.]

There were 384,000 special votes this year, or 15% of the total.

NBR politics editor Rob Hosking will be part of a pre-result lockup from 1.15pm, so expect his analysis soon after the final numbers are posted.

For fastest access to the raw result, hit electionresults.org.nz.

The centre-left bloc has already increased its share of the vote on specials during the MMP era.

An analysis of this year's results by Standford PhD candidate Chuan-Zheng Lee, who bills himself as politically neutral, has National losing two seats and Labour and the Greens each gaining one (see table below)

His projection assumes special vote trends follow the same pattern as 2014, when National did 17% worse on specials compared to regular votes, Labour did 14% better and the Greens 53% better.

A second analysis, by legal commentator Graeme Edgeler, uses slightly different methodology but comes to the same conclusion: National losing two seats to Labour and the Greens respectively (while the Greens had less momentum in 2017 vs 2014, they started the special vote count just a tenth of a percent away from the total needed for an extra MP).

Winston still kingmaker, but the two blocs much closer
If the special count does play out as Edgeler and Lee predict, the right bloc (National + ACT) will have 57 seats to 54 for the left bloc (Labour + Greens).

That would be a lot closer than the election night preliminary result of 59 to 52.

Source: The Co-op

Winston Peters would still be in his perennial position of kingmaker as both sides scramble to reach the magical 61.

But a red-green-black government would have a majority of three seats, giving it a bit more moral authority (if that matters), and a bit more working room.

Of course, Mr Peters will still have the keenest eye on what policy concessions he can extract from National and Labour, and there's still the outside chance that Bill English and James Shaw will cook up a surprise "teal deal".

During the campaign, the NZ First leader raised the prospect of wrapping everything up by October 12.

Commentator Matthew Hooton says pack a lunch. He's picking the negotiation process will actually take another five weeks.