Fast forward: 'What Next?' demonstrates how to face the future

What next? In a strategic context, this simple phrase hides layers of complexity that take time to fully comprehend.

What Next? is also the title of a worthy experiment that’s been airing on TVNZ over the past week.

The two are related, as the aim of What Next? is to “explore what New Zealand could look like in 2037." Nigel Latta, the creator of the show, has said that he wants the programme to start conversations about the future at a national level.

The programme is not trying to paint a definitive view of the future. This is important to understand, as among professional futurists it’s acknowledged that trying to accurately predict the future is impossible.

In foresight programmes, one of the measures of success is the level of conversation that is created. This is because structured conversations about the future start people thinking about possibilities and this, in turn, leads to better informed strategic responses.  

Using conversation as a measure of success, What Next? has achieved its goal. According to audience estimates, approximately 265,000 people watched the programme. At least 100,000 people actively engaged with the programme through the website and on Facebook. If these numbers are accurate, then the programme has engaged with roughly 5% of New Zealanders.

This level of engagement far outstrips previous attempts to start a conversation about the risks and opportunities facing the country. 

The McGuinness Institute in Wellington has published research detailing initiatives that have tried to engage Kiwis in a conversation about the future. The list dates back to 1934, with the most success (as measured by responses) achieved by NZ Post in 2001. It managed to connect with 10,000 people.

Timing is right
The timing for the programme is right because global levels of volatility and complexity are increasing. Technology is one of the drivers of this trend but alongside this are also changes in society, politics and the environment. As David Skilling points out, small countries are particularly exposed to rapid change and governments need to be more proactive in their thinking.

In a New Zealand context, What Next? could be the first step in a larger national conversation that explores risks and opportunities. To be truly successful, the initiative needs to continue, and quickly. Despite what many consultants would have you believe, change is extremely hard, and requires continuing effort for years.

The nature of live television means that deep coverage of the topics isn’t possible but the reaction from the audience online shows a clear appetite for more. With this in mind, perhaps the next step could be a series of live events around the country that allow people to engage at a deeper level.

These don’t need to be expensive and highly polished events, and can easily reach a large audience by livestreaming online for little cost. TVNZ or Radio NZ – or both working in partnership – could publicise and support the initiative. The events should also actively engage the next generation through organisations such the amazing Future Problem Solvers.

There is a role for business in supporting this conversation. Ensuring this country is well-positioned on a global scale, and proactive rather than reactive, will provide benefits for the whole economy.

Achieving long-term growth
Earlier this year, McKinsey released its Corporate Horizon Index, a piece of research that showed organisations with a long-term growth orientation (as opposed to focusing on the next three years) outperformed their peers by an average 47%.  

In New Zealand, only 10% of companies employ more than 20 people. If a handful of these companies were to support the next iteration of What Next? it would have the potential to kickstart a culture of long-term thinking, not only across the country but also within these organisations. 

One of the questions that Nigel Latta and John Campbell asked the What Next? audience about was their appetite for risk. 

The result was overwhelmingly in favour of more risky experiments to see what would benefit the country. Corporate support of this initiative isn’t risky. It’s an investment. Who’s keen?

Roger Dennis advises organisations about long-term global trends. He has been writing about foresight, strategy and innovation for over a decade and his thinking has been referenced in numerous publications, including the Financial Times and Scientific American