David Seymour fills political vacuum

Make no mistake: as long as National looks likely to win the next election, John Key will remain leader of the party. But his high water mark is now well behind us.

For the serious end of the business community, the tide went out on Mr Key long ago, when they realised he had no interest in a reform agenda and that his words, public or private, lacked the necessary relationship to government decisions to be reliable inputs for business ones. Those waiting for, say, a genuine infrastructure plan, the promised financial services hub in Auckland or RMA reform are still waiting.

Others took longer to reach the same conclusion, perhaps influenced by the Wellington-centric, pro-government cheerleading of Business NZ’s Phil O’Reilly, the last business figure to take Steven Joyce’s glossy Business Growth Agenda booklets seriously.

This is not to say the government has done a bad job. Even under the Reserve Bank’s downward revisions, growth is not expected to drop below 2% and unemployment will peak at 6.1%. Bill English has some chance of making his surplus more than a one-off.

But this is a far cry from the days when governments spoke of achieving sustainable growth in the 3-5% range, becoming the Switzerland of the South Pacific or an Asian tiger, or even just catching up with Australia. Much of this was of course hyperbole but it still suggested economic ambition entirely lacking in the current lot.

The sense of a government adamant for drift has now infected even the most loyal National Party donors and members. The prime minister is not helping. Where before Mr Key would privately brief party members on his take on the global economy and New Zealand’s response to it, his focus is now almost entirely on the flag referendum and his own international relationships. The continuing shift to the left, including the first increase in benefits since 1972, the $50 million U-turn on refugee numbers based on pressure from the twitterati and the silence on tax and RMA reform is not doing much for his reputation.

But, even in the unlikely event the polls did turn, there are no plausible contenders to replace him. Were Mr Key literally run over by a bus, Mr English would most likely just slip into the role to demonstrate stability. Mr Joyce fancies himself but is despised by the backbench, partly because the feeling is perceived to be mutual. Gerry Brownlee would only be a contender if National went into opposition and he seriously addressed his health, neither of which is remotely likely.

Of the next tier, Paula Bennett has largely dropped out of view after departing the welfare portfolio, Amy Adams failed dismally in her two major projects of RMA reform and introducing Mr Joyce’s copper tax (although she has done better on domestic violence) and Simon Bridges is yet to demonstrate an appetite for leadership on Auckland transport.

Of others, Jonathan Coleman is managing the health portfolio well despite fears he would step on landmines papered over for six years by Tony Ryall, and is gently rebalancing Murray McCully’s elitist preoccupations in sport. Judith Collins continues to see herself as a contender but fewer than six of her colleagues agree and it is unthinkable any of these people would challenge Mr Key. Of the class of 2014, Chris Bishop and Todd Muller are mentioned as long-term contenders but neither has yet won his first blue star.

Neither of course is Labour any threat to Mr Key. Whatever it proposes will just be adopted by this government. Like clockwork, after Andrew Little’s call for the government to “diversify” the economy, that became a major theme of Mr Joyce’s latest BGA brochure, the launch of which this week was given the media coverage it deserved.

Full recovery
It falls then on Act to provide some alternative. Quite by accident, the invisible hand has finally delivered it the right leader in 32-year-old David Seymour. Under his leadership, the party has made it out of the hospice and back into intensive care. While no one is suggesting Act could yet survive were National to turn off the respirator, Mr Seymour is both an ideological purist and a shrewd political tactician.

What better way to demonstrate the absurdity of the state than to use bar opening hours during the Rugby World Cup as an example? How astute to demonstrate the inherent unfairness of Labour and National’s endless welfare schemes, and soften Act’s image for being uncaring, by fixing the problem of paid parental leave for parents of premature babies?

His support for the Red Peak flag is pure triangulation, drawing positive attention from the left while demonstrating to the right the failure of Mr Key’s crony style of government. Anyone who thinks Mr Seymour’s “the French love coq” faux pas was actually that don’t know what they are dealing with. The same is true of his humiliation of Maurice Williamson, calculated to demonstrate a new generation is in charge.

None of this suggests there will be rush to hold vigil beside Act’s high-tech gurney. But it might be worth sending some flowers just in case Mr Seymour now manages to get his party at least into the general ward – and perhaps on a path to full recovery.

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