Corbyn wins

See also: Corbyn, political leadership and lessons for New Zealand

The Guardian reports:

Jeremy Corbyn has been elected leader of the British Labour party, in a stunning first-round victory that dwarfed even the mandate for Tony Blair in 1994.

He won with nearly 59.5% of first-preference votes, beating rivals Andy Burnham, who trailed on 19%, and Yvette Cooper who received 17%. The “Blairite” candidate Liz Kendall came last on 4.5%.

A huge victory. Also a huge turnout with 76% of members and supporters voting.

Corbyn will have an initial honeymoon. He may do well initially in the polls on the back of his win. Also the public may like a politician who says exactly what he thinks, rather than one who considers what is politically safe to say.

However it will not last. Not only are his economic policies akin to Syriza, his foreign policy is further to the left of even say Keith Locke.

He will either have to moderate his beliefs in order to be electable, or go into an election promising to scrap NATO, embrace Hamas, print unlimited money to fund everything and tax the rich until they leave.

But if he starts to divert from his true beliefs, then his appeal as a straight talking politician will suffer.

You can not say for sure he will never be Prime Minister, as events can interfere. Cameron’s Government might implode. But it is fair to say he is the most unlikely candidate for Prime Minister in recent British history.

What might assist him somewhat is that there is no credible third party for people who are against the Conservatives to go to, if in England. If the Lib Dems had not almost been wiped out in the election, they could have done massively well from Corbyn’s leadership. But they are just a sliver of what they were.

Corbyn is to the left of even the Greens, so maybe they could gain a bit of support from moderate Labour supporters, but unlikely. More likely is Corbyn is given a couple of years to look credible, and if he isn’t then he gets rolled. But by then the damage may be done.

Again the polls in the next three months won’t matter much. The polls in around six to nine months will.

David Farrar posts at Kiwiblog.