Comment: Britain faces crossroads in 2016

OPINION

This will be a crucial year for the future of the UK with an in-out referendum on European Union membership expected in the second half of the year and Scottish elections in May. 

Both could be pivotal polls that will determine the future character of the UK, politically and economically, for potentially decades to come.

Should British eurosceptics win the day in the plebiscite, it would represent a genuine body blow to the UK’s international influence. Despite what many from the Right assert, the UK’s influence and prosperity are enhanced by EU membership.  For example, in trade negotiations, the UK's bargaining position is significantly improved by being part of the EU – the world’s largest trading bloc – which accounts for some 20% of global GDP and approximately 500 million people.

Moreover, the influence that EU membership confers on the UK, for instance, helps drive foreign direct investment (FDI). Japanese-headquartered firms, for example, have been particularly vocal in threatening to reconsider their FDI if the UK opts to leave the EU because many of these companies see their UK operations as an effective way to access the whole European market.

Unfortunately, the prospects for the "in" vote winning have not been helped by the UK government’s failed foreign policy leadership and misjudgment toward the EU. While genuine reform is needed of the Brussels-based club, Prime Minister David Cameron has few clear, substantive goals nor a coherent or comprehensive strategy for achieving them. 

The first public opinion poll taken this week since Mr Cameron's latest reform deal puts the "out" support at 45%, the "in" at 36% and 19% don't knows. This is the biggest lead for the leave campaign since the wording of referendum was released mid last year.

While the default expectation of many remains that the "in" vote will ultimately achieve a potentially narrow victory, this is a precarious assumption, especially as polls are narrowing significantly, with several recent surveys putting the "out" camp ahead. 

For years, pro-Europeans have been deluged by a tide of euroscepticism from much of the media, and leading Conservative and UKIP politicians. In what could prove a  tight vote, the outcome could yet become tied to external events in Europe in 2016, including the possibility of a second summer of migration crisis.

Second Scottish referendum
Should the EU vote be lost, it will greatly increase the likelihood of a second Scottish referendum in coming years. Scots, in general, are more supportive of continued membership in the EU than the English and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has previously argued the UK should only leave the EU if majorities in each of the four constituent countries (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) all voted to leave.

Polls already indicate the Scottish National Party will likely emerge with another majority government in Edinburgh, an outcome that would ensure the question of Scotland’s constitutional status remains on the political agenda. In this context, the SNP would almost certainly seek to use UK exit ( the so-called brexit) from the EU as a potential trigger for a second independence referendum. 

Scottish independence, in turn, would undermine Britain’s voice in key international forums, from the UN, G-7/8, G-20 and NATO, in part because, as former Conservative prime minister John Major has argued, the union would be perceived to be harmed "if a chunk of it voluntarily chose to leave … In every international gathering that there is, the voice of Britain … would be growing weaker because we would have had a political fracture of a most dramatic nature and that makes people wonder about the stability … What would happen to Wales, what would happen to Northern Ireland?"

Perhaps most prominently, the breakup could be seized on by some non-permanent members of the UN Security Council and/or other UN members to prompt a review of the UK’s seat on the council. To be sure, reform of the council is overdue. However, Scottish independence could see this issue being decided with less favourable terms for Britain than might otherwise be the case.

Losing global influence
The EU and Scottish votes come at a time in the past few years which have already, unfortunately, seen the UK lose its global influence at the fastest pace for over a generation, despite the fact that it retains the fifth largest defence budget, the second largest aid budget and the fourth largest diplomatic network internationally. And this has happened because the UK government has moved away from the world, rather than confidently embracing it. 

Examples of this include the UK’s absence as other key European leaders, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, negotiated a peace settlement last year with Russia over Ukraine. According to General Sir Richard Shirreff, who was until last March Britain’s top commander in NATO, Britain’s failure to act more prominently here helped turned it into a “bit player” with “nobody taking any notice of [Cameron].” 

This is a flawed approach, which  has weakened the UK and diminished its global standing. And this problem will only be exacerbated if the UK leaves the EU and is then potentially dismembered by Scottish independence.

In a previous generation, former Conservative foreign secretary Douglas Hurd asserted the UK had been able to “punch above its weight” in the post-war era, despite it no longer being a great power. That statement may still be true today but is under increasing scrutiny as Britain risks fading into what Sir Richard has called “foreign policy irrelevance.”

Ultimately, this is not just a burning issue for the UK but also the rest of the world as a Britain that no longer punches so strongly on the international stage is also less able to bolster international security and economic prosperity at a time when both remain fragile. The recent 70th anniversaries of the end of the World War II in Europe and Asia are a fitting time to remember the UK’s traditions as a long-standing promoter of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. 

Continuing this long into the 21st century would be best secured through a continued union of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, buttressed by membership of a reformed EU.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics and a former UK government special adviser

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